With its presidential election set for tomorrow, October 25th, Côte d’Ivoire is entering a decisive phase in its recent political history. Fifteen years after the post-electoral crisis, the country has regained political stability and economic vitality. Nevertheless, markets remain cautious ahead of a ballot that could test this still-fragile confidence.

Côte d'Ivoire heads to the polls tomorrow, October 25, for a presidential election that is testing the nation's political maturity fifteen years after a deadly post-electoral crisis. President Alassane Ouattara, 83, who has been in power since 2011, is seeking another term following a 2020 constitutional change.

While the political climate appears calmer than the era of post-election violence, the opposition maintains that the vote is being rigged. Several major opposition figures, including Guillaume Soro (GPS), Laurent Gbagbo (PPA-CI), and Tidjane Thiam (PDCI), were disqualified on administrative or judicial grounds.

Côte d'Ivoire’s financial partners continue to praise its well-managed macroeconomic trajectory.

International observers believe the primary risk is not a large-scale crisis, but rather post-electoral tensions that could undermine the confidence of economic actors. The U.S.-based NGO Freedom House classifies the country as "Partially Free," noting that while institutions are consolidating, they remain fragile.

Economic Resilience Meets Political Caution

Côte d'Ivoire’s financial partners continue to praise its well-managed macroeconomic trajectory. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects growth of approximately 6.4% in 2025, driven by private investment and domestic demand. This occurs even as consumer prices entered deflationary territory, hitting -0.8% in July according to the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO). The IMF expects the fiscal deficit to narrow to the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) target of 3% of GDP this year, helped by fiscal consolidation and higher domestic revenues.

Despite the political caution, institutions remain optimistic. "The medium-term outlook remains broadly favorable," said Olaf Unteroberdoerster, the IMF's Mission Chief for the country. He reassured that "despite the significant global policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and Côte d’Ivoire’s high vulnerability to climate shocks, risks to the economic outlook are broadly balanced."

Credit ratings agencies offer a mix of continued confidence and heightened prudence. In June 2025, Fitch Ratings affirmed Côte d’Ivoire’s sovereign rating at BB-, with a Stable Outlook. Fitch stated its base-case scenario assumes the election's outcome will not cause disruptions significant enough to affect growth or budget consolidation, anticipating broad continuity in economic policymaking. However, the agency acknowledged that the October 2025 presidential election is "an important test for the country's political system, given the history of violence during presidential votes." Fitch warned that questions surrounding the eligibility of some candidates "highlight risks of unrest and instability," and a prolonged contestation could lead to an adjustment of the outlook.

Moody’s Investors Service, which upgraded the country's rating to Ba2 in 2024, positions it as the "second-best credit profile in Sub-Saharan Africa, just behind Botswana." Yet, in its September 2025 report, Moody’s flagged political and institutional stability as a "medium-term" risk, urging vigilance due to potential election-related tensions and the security situation in West Africa.

BMI Research (Fitch Solutions) identified the election as the second of "four major risks to the banking sector" in 2025

Echoing this concern, BMI Research (Fitch Solutions) identified the election as the second of "four major risks to the banking sector" in 2025. The firm stated that electoral tensions create a volatile environment that threatens economic stability and investor confidence, directly affecting banking sector operations and profitability.

Political Risks Outweighed by Investor Confidence 

On the Eurobond market, the election appears to have caused little disruption to investor sentiment, with Ivorian debt maintaining a robust profile. Yield spreads between the Ivorian Eurobond maturing in 2036 and U.S. Treasury bonds, which had already eased significantly from their 2023 peak, show relative stability or even a slight tightening. This trend aligns with a favorable context across the continent; the Cbonds Africa Sovereign USD T-Spread Index shows the yield differential on African sovereign bonds standing at about 388 basis points in early October 2025, down from nearly 900 points in 2023.

With average growth exceeding 6% since 2021, Côte d'Ivoire boasts one of West Africa’s most dynamic economic trajectories. The country successfully returned to international markets with a $2.6 billion Eurobond that was oversubscribed in 2024, signaling investor confidence in its ability to service its debt. Private investment remains strong, driven by agribusiness—Côte d'Ivoire is the world’s leading cocoa producer, with prices hitting record highs twice this year—as well as infrastructure and digital services. The stability of the CFA Franc also continues to reassure partners.

Sovereignty Debate Resonates with Voters

However, campaign platforms reveal clear divergences over the direction of the country's economic policy, particularly regarding foreign investors and relations with France.

While President Ouattara has fostered cordial and strengthened ties with Paris, some opponents advocate for a comprehensive overhaul of political, security, and economic relations with the former colonial power

While President Ouattara has fostered cordial and strengthened ties with Paris, some opponents advocate for a comprehensive overhaul of political, security, and economic relations with the former colonial power. Independent candidate Ahoua Don Mello, a former PPA-CI official, is campaigning for monetary sovereignty through a reform of the CFA Franc. He stated in an interview with BBC Afrique that "as long as we do not have a sovereign currency, our foreign exchange reserves, those that allow us to purchase the technology and equipment essential for industrialization, do not truly belong to us. They remain under the control of the former colonial power."

The other main political heavyweight, businessman Jean-Louis Billon, also champions a more nationalist discourse. The former PDCI executive has made the concept of "Côte d’Ivoire First" his campaign slogan. If elected, the billionaire aims to prioritize the Ivorian economy and national businesses to create jobs and improve income for the domestic private sector.

Regardless of the election outcome, the next government will face major social challenges: youth employment, financial inclusion, reducing regional inequalities, and climate change adaptation. These challenges also present new opportunities for economic partnership, where international investors will have a key role to play.

These messages are resonating with younger voters who feel excluded from the country’s economic gains. In a highly open economy, this rhetoric is closely watched by foreign companies operating in the country. French investors, in particular, are attentive to the political situation amid a broader trend of popular rejection of the French presence in its former African colonies. With over 1,000 French companies operating in the country, France is the largest investor in Côte d'Ivoire, with its Foreign Direct Investment stock amounting to €2.5 billion in 2023, according to the Banque de France, the central bank.

Regardless of the election outcome, the next government will face major social challenges: youth employment, financial inclusion, reducing regional inequalities, and climate change adaptation. These challenges also present new opportunities for economic partnership, where international investors will have a key role to play.

Moutiou Adjibi Nourou