Fitch Solutions estimates that Africa could account for about 7% of global rare earth production by 2034. The projection is largely based on the current pipeline of projects under development across the continent, which currently has no rare earth mines in production.

The global race for rare earths intensified sharply in 2025, against a backdrop of announced export restrictions by China, which dominates the value chain of the 17 strategic metals. These signals have pushed Western countries and their allies, led by the United States, to forge new partnerships to secure supplies and reduce their dependence on Beijing.

In this reshaping of supply chains, Africa stands out as a high-potential region, with several strategic rare earth projects to watch closely throughout 2026.

Kangankunde (Malawi)

Since production stopped at Burundi’s Gakara mine in June 2021, Africa has had no industrial rare earth mine in operation. This could change with the Kangankunde project in Malawi, where Australian company Lindian Resources is targeting the start of production by the end of 2026. In this context, the company announced a final investment decision in August 2025, after securing $59 million to fund construction.

Work is ongoing, with the company recently announcing the deployment of mining equipment on site. Lindian plans to develop a mine with an annual capacity of 15,300 tons of rare earth concentrate, expandable to 50,000 tons per year over a projected mine life of 45 years. This potential has already drawn interest from Washington. According to information released in December 2025, discussions with the U.S. government aim to assess Kangankunde’s potential contribution to addressing emerging supply shortfalls faced by the United States and its allies.

At this stage, no binding commitments have been formalized, but talks are expected to continue in the coming months.

Songwe Hill (Malawi)

Songwe Hill is a rare earth project in the financing phase, also located in Malawi. According to a feasibility study published in 2022 by its Canadian operator Mkango Resources, the project could ultimately deliver 8,325 tons of rare earth carbonate per year over an 18-year mine life, with an initial capital requirement of $277 million. In September 2025, the company notably signed an agreement with the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) for $4.6 million in financing. Beyond this transaction, the U.S. federal agency is also considering a potential $100 million loan to support the project’s development.

This U.S. backing adds to support previously signaled by the European Union, which last year included Pulawy, a rare earth separation plant planned by Mkango, on its list of strategic critical minerals projects. The move also implies European monitoring of Songwe Hill, whose output is expected to supply the planned facility. To accelerate development, Mkango plans to merge with Crown PropTech Acquisitions to form a rare earth-focused entity bringing together the Songwe Hill and Pulawy projects.

The aim of this structure is to build a non-Chinese supply source capable of serving markets in North America, Europe, and Asia. A listing of the new company on Nasdaq is planned, subject to the completion of an updated technical report on Songwe Hill for U.S. investors. The impact of this initiative on the project’s progress will be closely watched in the coming months.

Longonjo (Angola)

Touted as Angola’s first rare earth mine, the Longonjo project entered the construction phase in May 2025. Its British operator, Pensana, announced at the time a $25 million investment from Angola’s sovereign wealth fund, the FSDEA, to support development work. The project, with a total estimated cost of $217 million, targets first production in 2027, with an initial capacity of 20,000 tons per year of MREC, a rare earth concentrate used in the manufacture of permanent magnets.

Alongside construction progress, Pensana is working to complete the project’s financing. In December 2025, the company announced a $100 million equity placement. It is also negotiating a $160 million debt facility with the U.S. Export-Import Bank (EXIM), reflecting growing interest from Washington in the Longonjo project. As part of this push, Pensana signed a memorandum of understanding with Germany’s Vacuumschmelze GmbH & Co. KG (VAC) to establish a “mine-to-magnet” supply chain in the United States based on future output from Longonjo.

Similar initiatives targeting the U.S. market have also been announced, notably with U.S.-based company ReElement. In this context, Pensana is considering a Nasdaq listing in 2026 to raise Longonjo’s profile among U.S. investors. As with the other projects cited, this move remains at the planning stage, with no fixed timetable announced so far.

Ngualla (Tanzania)

The Ngualla project is also among the most advanced rare earth developments in Africa. Located in Tanzania, it requires an estimated investment of about $320 million and is designed to produce 37,200 tons of MREC per year over a mine life of 20 years. As its Australian operator, Peak Rare Earths, was preparing to launch construction, the company became the target of an acquisition by China’s Shenghe Resources in May 2025.

Already a 19.7% shareholder, Shenghe offered about $97 million to acquire the remaining shares. Despite a competing bid from U.S.-based General Innovation Capital Partners, the Chinese offer was ultimately selected. Regulatory approvals were secured in September, with completion initially expected in early October.

About four months later, limited information has been released on Shenghe’s strategy for Peak Rare Earths and, more broadly, on the development timeline for the Ngualla project. At this stage, no specific dates have been announced for the start of construction or for the beginning of production.

Phalaborwa (South Africa)

The Phalaborwa project places South Africa at the center of global rare earth supply dynamics. According to its operator, Rainbow Rare Earths, developing the asset would require an estimated investment of $326 million and would allow annual production of 1,900 tons of magnet rare earth oxides over a 16-year mine life. The company plans to complete a definitive feasibility study (DFS) in 2026, a key step to update the project’s parameters and begin mobilizing financing for construction.

Phalaborwa already benefits from U.S. support. In 2023, the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) committed to invest $50 million in the project through investment firm TechMet, with the stated objective of helping to develop more diversified critical minerals supply chains. The publication of the DFS and the decisions that follow in the coming months will determine whether this ambition moves forward.

Other strategic projects

Several other rare earth projects under development in Africa are also attracting interest from major economic powers. This is notably the case for South Africa’s Zandkopsdrift project, which is also included on the European Union’s list of strategic projects.

In Uganda, Ionic Rare Earths has been seeking for several months to secure $120.8 million for its Makuutu project. The company said it is holding discussions with members of the Minerals Security Partnership (MSP), a transnational group of countries including the United States, Germany, France, and Japan, aimed at ensuring stable supplies of critical minerals.

Meanwhile, the Lofdal project in Namibia, 40% owned by Japan’s JOGMEC, also remains one to watch. New studies are planned to optimize its production parameters.

What lies ahead for the African countries involved?

As several of these projects move closer to production, host countries are reaching a strategic crossroads. The developments offer opportunities to raise export earnings, attract foreign investment, and strengthen local value chains, notably through in-country refining and processing, requirements that are increasingly being pushed across Africa. However, success will depend on governments’ ability to put in place a clear regulatory framework, manage environmental and social issues, and secure local acceptance for the projects.

The importance of these factors is underscored by the continued suspension of operations at Burundi’s Gakara mine, due to a commercial dispute between the government and Rainbow Rare Earths. Rising interest from major powers and private investors could serve as a development lever, but it also calls for heightened vigilance to protect local interests. The year 2026 could therefore prove decisive in showing how African countries harness this strategic potential and position themselves on the global map of rare earths, and critical minerals more broadly.

Aurel Sèdjro Houenou