Finance

OECD scales down, again, global growth forecasts for 2016 and 2017

Thursday, 22 September 2016 14:25

The organization for economic co-operation and development (OECD) scaled down on September 21st, for the third time in the year, its forecasts for global growth for 2016 and 2017, mentioning a weakening global trade and Britain’s exit from the European Union (Brexit).

The OECD now expects global economy to grow by 2.9% in 2016, thus 0.1 pt less than it did earlier in June, and 0.4 pt than at the beginning of the year.

According to the organization, global economy should rise by 3.2%, thus 0.1 pt less compared forecast made in June.

A low-growth trap has taken root, as poor growth expectations further depress trade, investment, productivity and wages,” OECD said. It added that lower trade growth would lead to weaker productivity growth.

Next year, growth outlook in the US and UK should also degrade. The US economy should indeed only grow by 1.4% in 2016 against 1.8% forecast in June and 2% at the beginning of the year, due to low levels of investments. In 2017, this economy should grow by 2.1% or 0.1 pt less than in June.

Moreover, though the OECD improved its forecast economic growth in UK for 2016 by 0.1 pt to 1.8%, it cut it to 1% from 2% in June for 2017 due to Brexit’s impact.

For China, the OECD maintained its forecast at 6.5% for 2016 and 6.2% for the next. Same for India which it said should record a strong growth of 7.4% in 2016 and keep the pace the following year, at 7.5%.

The organization was also less pessimistic regarding Brazil’s economy for which it projected GDP to fall by 3.3% this year, compared to 4.3% last June.

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