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“We See a Structural Copper Shortage Emerging,” Olivier Binyingo, Chairman of Kamoa Copper

“We See a Structural Copper Shortage Emerging,” Olivier Binyingo, Chairman of Kamoa Copper
Friday, 27 February 2026 20:19

In 2025, the development of the Kamoa-Kakula copper complex, the largest in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), was marked by two major events: a seismic incident and the commissioning of a new smelter with an annual design capacity of 500,000 tonnes of concentrate.

In this exclusive interview, the Chairman of Kamoa Copper, the joint venture that owns the complex, discusses the impact of these events on the project, the mining sector, the national economy and global copper supply.

Olivier Binyingo heads a company whose shareholders include China’s Zijin Mining, which holds a 39.6% stake. He also comments on the strategic partnership between the DRC and the United States aimed at encouraging American investment in the Congolese mining sector.

He is also Vice President of Public Affairs at Ivanhoe Mines, the operator of Kamoa-Kakula, and addresses the project’s power needs, the Lobito Corridor and relations with local communities.

Bankable: The first copper anodes have begun production at the new Kamoa Copper smelter, commissioned in November 2025. It is described as the largest and greenest on the continent. What makes it so?

Olivier Binyingo: Because it is. (smiles) It is the largest copper smelter in Africa and the largest of its kind in the world. Only four such smelters exist globally, and this is both the newest and the biggest. It is roughly a $1.3 billion investment, which is significant for the DRC and for Africa.

It is also greener for several reasons. First, technology. As the newest facility, it incorporates the latest advances, particularly in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The system captures more than 99% of sulfur dioxide emissions that would otherwise be released into the atmosphere.

Second, energy. A smelter consumes a large amount of electricity, although it generates part of its own power. The heat recovery system produces about 8 MW, which is reused in operations. The facility requires around 70 MW in total, with the balance supplied through hydroelectric power via SNEL.

Finally, there is an indirect impact. The commissioning of the smelter, combined with a faster-than-expected ramp-up, significantly reduces transport volumes. Previously, we exported concentrate; now we produce anodes. That effectively halves the volume shipped, meaning fewer trucks and lower emissions across the logistics chain. That is what makes it green: technology, energy mix and reduced transport intensity.

Bankable: This investment allows Kamoa Copper to move from large-scale copper concentrate production to copper anode production. In practical terms, what does that change for the company, the State and local communities?

OB: Beyond the environmental benefits, halving transport volumes significantly reduces logistics costs, which represent a major component of operating expenses. Assuming transport routes remain unchanged, and excluding the impact of the Lobito Corridor, those costs would effectively be cut in half.

While the DRC’s industrialization policy faces challenges, we have demonstrated that a project of this scale can be delivered. In that sense, the smelter has become a flagship project for this policy.

In employment terms, the smelter has created around 1,000 jobs at the facility. These are highly specialized roles, given the advanced technology involved. Employees underwent extensive training, including in China and in Zambia, where a smelter using the same technology operates. So, the impact is not only job creation, but also a substantial upskilling of the workforce.

At the national level, the smelter supports efforts to increase local value addition rather than exporting lower-value products. While the DRC’s industrialization policy faces challenges, we have demonstrated that a project of this scale can be delivered. In that sense, the smelter has become a flagship project for this policy.

Bankable:As you mentioned, the smelter supports the government’s objective of increasing local processing. However, its entire output has already been committed for a certain period under off-take agreements, primarily with related parties. Why was that decision made? Were these agreements negotiated on competitive and transparent terms, in line with the State’s expectations?

OB: Long-term off-take agreements are standard practice for a project of Kamoa-Kakula’s scale. They help finance the smelter as well as future developments.

Buyers are selected through a competitive bidding process to ensure they can take substantial volumes. This allows us to secure market-based pricing for the benefit of the project.

The government holds a 20% stake in Kamoa Copper and was involved in the selection process from start to finish. Its interests are aligned with those of the company: securing the best possible pricing and terms while ensuring full transparency.

Bankable: The government is also calling for stronger local content, particularly in subcontracting. What has Kamoa Copper delivered so far on this front? And is there scope to go further?

OB: There is always room to do more. This issue has several dimensions. First, compliance. The subcontracting law requires mining companies to work with firms that are at least 51% Congolese-owned. Kamoa Copper complies fully and works with companies registered and certified by the ARSP.

Since production began, we have spent approximately $8.3 billion with local suppliers.

Beyond services, in terms of goods procurement, around 70% of the goods sourced by the Kamoa-Kakula project are purchased from Congolese companies. But we believe we can go further. Some SMEs need support to access markets and scale up, so we provide assistance, including access to financing and mentoring, to help them meet project requirements. We also facilitate joint ventures between international firms and local SMEs to promote knowledge transfer and build capacity.

Finally, at the community level, even before production began in 2021, Kamoa invested in businesses fully owned by members of neighboring communities, providing financing and technical support. We were their first client. Some of these businesses have now operated for nearly ten years, grown and diversified their customer base. This is the local economic base we are working to strengthen around the project.

Bankable: What is the scale of the budget dedicated to subcontracting?

OB: Since production began, we have spent approximately $8.3 billion with local suppliers.

Bankable: Despite these efforts, challenges remain. A protest by local residents on one of the roads leading to your facilities disrupted operations on April 21, 2025. How do you plan to prevent similar incidents in the future?

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OB: There will always be challenges. The protests in April last year took place in a specific set of circumstances. Any major industrial project introduced into an area without an established industrial base can create disruption. That is why continuous dialogue with affected communities, both before and throughout the life of the project, is essential.

Beyond issues linked to artisanal mining, mining areas inevitably attract various actors seeking to benefit from the economic activity generated by the project. Different stakeholders pursue their own interests, sometimes from outside the immediate area of impact.

We have built strong relationships with neighboring communities, but there can be periods of tension. April 2025 was one such moment. Since then, we have addressed the main concerns raised by communities and provincial authorities. Discussions have resumed, and the situation has stabilized.

Bankable: We understand that the smelter, which required an investment of $1.1 billion, was partly financed through bank debt. What role did the local banking sector play? In particular, what was the involvement of Rawbank, which has previously supported the Kamoa-Kakula project?

OB: No financing was specifically earmarked for the smelter. However, the project as a whole was supported by external financing. It was funded through a combination of internal cash flow, shareholder contributions and certain off-take agreements. That is why we structured the project in phases.

As for local banks, several have been involved. Rawbank was among the first to support the project, and since then most of the major banks in the DRC have participated in one way or another.

Projects of this scale also help strengthen the local banking sector and build its capacity. It is a two-way relationship: we need financing, and these projects enable local banks to grow.

Bankable: As the project scales up, power demand is projected to reach 347 MW by the end of 2028. By your estimates, sufficient clean energy will be available to meet that demand, including through the $450 million rehabilitation of Inga II’s fifth turbine and associated transmission infrastructure. Do you plan further similar investments with SNEL?

OB: Our power requirements are substantial and will continue to increase with the next phases of the project.

We have a long-standing partnership with SNEL, which began with the rehabilitation of the Mwadingusha hydroelectric plant in 2021, adding 78 MW to the national grid. The most recent milestone was the commissioning of G5 at Inga II in the fourth quarter of last year, with a capacity of 178 MW. That brings the total additional capacity financed by the project to 256 MW.

We have a long-standing partnership with SNEL […] That brings the total additional capacity financed by the project to 256 MW.

However, the work is not yet complete. Transmission capacity between Inga and the Greater Katanga region is still insufficient to transmit all the available power. We therefore remain focused on strengthening transmission infrastructure.

As for further projects, it is certainly possible. SNEL operates extensive infrastructure and has significant investment needs. Our partnership is strong, so the door remains open. For now, however, our priority is to finalize the transmission component of G5 before committing to additional projects.

Bankable: You also plan to develop 120 MW of solar capacity, with two 30 MW projects already underway. When do you expect to reach that target? And will it follow the same model as the current projects?

OB: The two 30 MW projects developed with independent power producers are expected to be commissioned in the second quarter of this year. Looking ahead, we intend to replicate the same model. It has proven effective and should allow us to move faster. The second phase is already underway. We have identified suppliers and begun negotiations. If all goes according to plan, we expect to reach 120 MW in 2027. Once the remaining conditions are finalized, we will provide a more precise timeline.

Bankable: Last May, the complex experienced seismic activity, forcing a partial suspension of operations. Do you now know exactly what caused it? And is it possible to determine whether such an event could happen again?

OB: It was a reminder that, despite technological advances, mining remains a high-risk activity. Fortunately, unlike other incidents last year at major operations elsewhere, we had no fatalities or injuries. That was due to swift decision-making: as soon as instability was detected, the teams prioritized safety.

We strengthened our monitoring systems to detect seismic movements earlier and upgraded the infrastructure to better withstand similar stress events in the future.

After evacuating personnel, we suspended operations and removed most of the equipment. Financially, the impact was limited. We then brought in external experts to assess the infrastructure. They concluded that the seismic activity resulted from a redistribution of underground stress between structural pillars in the Kakula mine. This led to rockfalls, affected pumping capacity and caused flooding in part of the mine. Such stress events are common in deep underground mining operations.

Based on those findings, we strengthened our monitoring systems to detect seismic movements earlier and upgraded the infrastructure to better withstand similar stress events in the future.

Bankable: The incident disrupted production and led to a downward revision of your targets. You now expect to exceed 500,000 tonnes in 2027. How confident are you in reaching that objective?

OB: There is often a focus on the downward revisions, but despite the challenges, Kamoa-Kakula produced more than 388,000 tonnes of copper in 2025. Our initial expectations were higher, but it remains a major operation and we continue to rank among the top 10 producers globally. We also continue to contribute strongly to the national economy, particularly as higher copper prices helped offset the impact of lower volumes.

It is also important to note that Kamoa-Kakula consists of several mines. While Kakula was affected, Kamoa and Kansoko were not, and their performance exceeded projections.

To ramp production back up, the key priority is dewatering at Kakula. That process is nearly complete, except for the deepest section in the east. We are regaining access to high-grade areas and developing additional access to other high-grade zones. Production should gradually recover.

As our founder has long argued, supply growth is unlikely to keep pace with demand. Discovering new deposits and developing mines takes time. We therefore see a structural copper deficit emerging. In that context, we expect prices to remain on an upward trajectory and potentially strengthen further.

This year, our guidance is between 370,000 and 420,000 tonnes. Next year, we expect to exceed 500,000 tonnes. Over the medium term, we anticipate stabilizing around 550,000 tonnes per year. After roughly two years of disruption, we expect to move back above the 500,000-tonne level.

Bankable: As you noted, higher copper prices helped offset the impact of lower production. Revenue rose 5% to $3.3 billion. What is your outlook for copper prices over the coming years?

OB: Last year, two main dynamics shaped the market. On the supply side, incidents at several major copper mines, including Kamoa-Kakula, constrained output. At the same time, demand for critical minerals, and copper in particular, continued to strengthen, driven by electrification, electric vehicles and artificial intelligence. This is a structural trend that is unlikely to reverse.

As our founder has long argued, supply growth is unlikely to keep pace with demand. Discovering new deposits and developing mines takes time. We therefore see a structural copper deficit emerging. In that context, we expect prices to remain on an upward trajectory and potentially strengthen further.

Bankable: Earlier, you mentioned that the Lobito Corridor reduces your logistics costs. The Minister of Transport, Jean-Pierre Mbemba, has cited potential reductions of up to 30%. What volumes are you currently shipping via Lobito? And do you intend to route all copper anode production through this corridor?

OB: Not necessarily. Other corridors remain relevant. We need to diversify our routes to manage risk, which also creates competitive pressure on costs.

Lobito remains important because the distance between our operations and the port of Lobito is roughly half the distance to Durban. That reduces both transit time and costs, with additional environmental benefits.

This year, we expect to ship between 50,000 and 70,000 tonnes via Lobito, although those figures remain flexible and will depend on the pace of ramp-up and the competitiveness of alternative corridors.

We were the first to ship volumes through Lobito, initially concentrate. The first batch of anodes will soon move by rail; it has already left the site for Kolwezi.

Lobito is still ramping up. This year, we expect to ship between 50,000 and 70,000 tonnes via Lobito, although those figures remain flexible and will depend on the pace of ramp-up and the competitiveness of alternative corridors.

Bankable: Last December, the United States concluded a strategic agreement with the DRC aimed at encouraging U.S. investment in the Congolese mining sector. How do you view this development as Chairman of Kamoa Copper, given that the company includes Chinese shareholders? Do you see it as a risk or an opportunity, and why?

OB: Regardless of geopolitical alignments, demand for critical minerals is structural and unlikely to reverse. If we are serious about electrification and the energy transition, that demand will remain.

From the perspective of a major copper producer, this is a positive development. The need for copper and other critical minerals transcends geopolitical divisions. It reinforces the structural case for strong prices and represents a significant opportunity for the DRC to leverage its mining sector to drive broader economic development.

Interview by Aboudi Ottou, with Bankable

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