• Raw sugar dropped to 14.07 cents per pound on October 30, its lowest since 2020.
• Global output is expected to exceed demand by 1.98 million tons in 2025/26.
• Strong production in Brazil and India is fueling expectations of oversupply.

Raw sugar prices fell to 14.07 cents per pound (0.45 kg) on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in New York yesterday, their lowest level since October 2020. It marked the fourth consecutive session of decline, with the benchmark Sugar No.11 contract losing nearly one-third of its value over the past two years.

This new low comes amid growing concerns over a potential supply glut in the coming months. According to consultancy Datagro, the global sugar market could record a surplus of 1.98 million tons in 2025/26, compared with a deficit of 5 million tons previously.

Both Brazil and India, the world’s top sugar suppliers, are expected to produce ample volumes. In Brazil, industry group UNICA reported a slight increase in cumulative output in the Center-South region as of October 1.

In India, authorities forecast sugar production at 30 million tons, up from 26.1 million tons last year. Officials also indicated that the country could resume sugar exports during the current season.

Analysts say sugar price trends will depend in the coming months on crude oil prices and weather conditions in Brazil. Falling oil futures make sugarcane less attractive for bioethanol production, benefiting sugar mills, while higher oil prices encourage producers to shift toward biofuel output.