• Public debt reached 72.5% of GDP in 2024, above CEMAC’s 70% threshold.

• Expansionary spending and falling oil revenues drive debt surge.

• Debt service hit 42.6% of revenues in 2024; costly eurobond buyback reflects default risk.

Gabon’s public debt is expected to climb to 86.1% of GDP by 2027, well above the CEMAC convergence ceiling of 70%, the World Bank said in its latest economic outlook, “Building and Preserving Gabon’s Wealth wealth for better livelihoods.”

The debt ratio already breached the limit in 2024, rising to 72.5% of GDP from 70.6% in 2023. Forecasts put it at 80.2% in 2025 and 82.6% in 2026, raising concerns about the sustainability of public finances.

The surge is linked to expansionary spending, with public expenditure jumping 24% in 2024. Capital investment rose 155%, mainly in infrastructure such as roads, water, and electricity. Social transfers and subsidies also grew by 48%, covering scholarships and fuel subsidies.

The increase has been compounded by falling oil revenues, the backbone of Gabon’s economy. Gains in tax collection through digitalization have not been enough to offset the decline.

Debt management efforts

Authorities have tried to ease pressures with active debt management, including early buybacks of maturing debt and reprofiling of domestic liabilities. Yet debt service remains heavy, consuming 42.6% of total public revenues in 2024. The cost of servicing, including interest and principal payments, has risen steadily in recent years.

Gabon also struggles to access markets. Sovereign downgrades by Fitch and Moody’s in 2024 reduced investor appetite, making borrowing more expensive. In February 2025, the government repurchased Eurobonds at 12.7%, highlighting perceived default risks. At the same time, external arrears have built up to 1.8% of GDP.

Looking ahead, the World Bank projects modest growth of 2.4% annually, coupled with persistent fiscal deficits exceeding 5% of GDP between 2025 and 2027. With oil output and prices expected to decline, financing sources may shrink further.

The institution urged Gabon to implement strict fiscal consolidation and accelerate structural reforms. Priorities include stronger domestic revenue mobilization, more efficient public spending, and rationalization of budgetary allocations.