Gold reached a new all-time high near $5,590 per ounce last week. Although the upward momentum has eased somewhat in recent days, analysts continue to see room for further gains in 2026.

Gold prices fell to $4,642 per ounce late Monday, Feb. 2, extending a pullback that began over the weekend. The decline followed a peak of around $5,590 per ounce reached last week. According to Trading Economics, the move was largely driven by profit-taking after strong gains since the start of the year.

Despite the drop, overall market sentiment remains upbeat, with several analysts still expecting prices to move above last week’s high.

UBS, JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank remain bullish

Even before the recent pullback, Germany’s Deutsche Bank had forecast that gold could reach $6,000 per ounce in 2026, citing sustained demand from both investors and central banks.

Swiss bank UBS has expressed similar optimism, raising its price target late last week to $6,200 per ounce by September 2026, up from its previous projection of $5,000.

More recently, U.S. bank JP Morgan adopted an even more bullish stance, projecting gold at $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026. The bank also pointed to continued interest from central banks and investors as a key factor supporting prices over the medium term.

“We remain firmly bullishly convicted in gold over the medium-term on the back of a clean, structural, continued diversification trend that has further to run amid a still well-entrenched regime of real asset outperformance vs paper assets,” JP Morgan said in a research note quoted by Reuters.

Strong buying by central banks was one of the main drivers behind gold’s 67% rise in 2025. In a note published on Thursday, Jan. 29, the World Gold Council reported record annual demand of 5,002 tonnes, amid heightened geopolitical tensions that pushed many central banks to increase their holdings of safe-haven assets such as gold.

Downside risks remain

Despite the broadly bullish consensus, several factors continue to weigh on the outlook. Chief among them is uncertainty over the future leadership of the U.S. Federal Reserve, sparked by President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh to head the institution.

A former Fed governor, Warsh is seen by markets as favoring tighter monetary policy focused on fighting inflation, even if that means keeping interest rates higher for longer.

He would succeed Jerome Powell, whose management of monetary policy has drawn repeated criticism from the White House in recent months. The situation has raised concerns over potential political pressure on the Fed, an issue closely watched by financial markets.

Higher interest rates tend to weigh on gold, which offers no yield, making it less attractive than bonds or other interest-bearing assets. UBS has warned that such a scenario could increase the risk of a deeper correction, with its downside case pointing to prices around $4,600 per ounce.

The wide range of forecasts highlights both strong expectations and persistent uncertainty surrounding gold’s trajectory in 2026. These developments will be closely monitored in the coming weeks, particularly in Africa, where several producing countries are pursuing tax reforms to capture more of the gains from the ongoing bull market.

Aurel Sèdjro Houenou