• South African vehicle exports recorded a surprise 32.9% surge in Sept 2025, showing resilience despite US tariffs that caused sharp drops earlier.
• The domestic auto market also boomed, with September sales reaching a 10-year high of 54,700 units. This marks a strong 24.3% increase from 2024.
• The domestic sales boom was supported by favorable economics: inflation eased to 3.3%, interest rate cuts improved financing, and GDP showed growth.

South Africa’s vehicle exports delivered a surprising performance in September 2025, surging to 38,772 units. According to the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa (NAAMSA), this marks a 32.9% increase from the 29,180 vehicles exported in September 2024. The strong month pushed year-to-date exports 6.0% ahead of the same period last year, demonstrating what the organization called the industry’s “resilience despite global supply chain disruptions and US automotive tariffs.”

However, the reasons behind this sudden turnaround remain unclear. The positive report is a stark contrast to NAAMSA’s warnings from July 2025, when it described the 25% US tariffs on the automotive sector as “a serious threat to one of South Africa’s most globally integrated and export-oriented industries.”

The recent surge is particularly striking given the year's challenging start. NAAMSA’s July press release noted that vehicle exports to the U.S. had already dropped by 73% in the first quarter of 2025, with further declines of 80% and 85% in April and May. At the time, the association warned of a “direct loss of vehicle and component export volumes” that would be difficult to recover.

The threat of US tariffs was significant because the United States is a crucial market for South African automakers, consistently ranking as the country's second-largest trading partner. The automotive industry has been a major beneficiary of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). In 2024 alone, the auto sector accounted for 64% of all AGOA trade between the two nations, generating R28.6 billion in revenue from the 24,681 vehicles exported to the U.S.

Beyond the export market, South Africa's domestic auto sector also had a banner month in September 2025, recording its highest monthly sales in a decade. New vehicle sales reached 54,700 units, a 24.3% increase compared to September 2024. NAAMSA attributes this robust performance to rising consumer confidence and a shift toward more affordable mobility options.

This growth was strong across the board. Passenger car sales climbed 28% to 38,603 units, while light commercial vehicles, including bakkies and minibuses, saw a 19.7% increase to 13,078 units. The car rental industry was also a significant buyer, purchasing 20.1% of all passenger cars, signaling a healthy recovery in the tourism and business sectors.

This strong domestic performance is supported by several positive economic indicators. Inflation eased to 3.3% in August, and interest rate cuts by the South African Reserve Bank have made vehicle financing more attractive for buyers. Furthermore, modest GDP growth of 0.8% in the second quarter has helped sustain consumer confidence for making major purchases.

By Cynthia Ebot Takang, Edited by Idriss Linge