• Electric vehicles could cost less to own than petrol cars across Africa before 2040.

• Researchers calculated total cost of ownership without taxes, subsidies or import duties.

• Electric vehicles accounted for about 1% of new car sales in Africa in 2025.

Electric vehicles (EVs) could become cheaper to own than petrol-powered cars across Africa before 2040, according to an analysis by MIT Technology Review based on a study published in Nature Energy.

The study, titled “Battery-electric passenger vehicles will be cost-effective across Africa well before 2040,” assessed the total cost of ownership over the lifetime of vehicles. Researchers included purchase prices, financing costs and fuel or charging expenses in their calculations.

For electric vehicles, the authors incorporated the cost of an off-grid solar system that includes panels, batteries and an inverter. Researchers excluded taxes, import duties and subsidies in order to isolate core economic fundamentals.

The analysis demonstrated that electric vehicles can achieve cost competitiveness across the continent, largely due to declining battery costs and expanding availability of off-grid solar power for charging. The study found that electric two-wheelers could reach cost parity even earlier, potentially before the end of the decade.

The analysis identified South Africa, Mauritius and Botswana as markets where financing conditions already approach the threshold required for competitiveness.

However, adoption rates remain low. MIT Technology Review reported that electric vehicles accounted for about 1% of new car sales in Africa in 2025.

Several structural constraints continue to limit adoption. Many countries face unreliable electricity grids, limited charging infrastructure and high borrowing costs. In some markets, financing costs exceed the vehicle’s initial purchase price, which delays economic parity despite steady technological cost declines.

The findings suggest that falling battery prices and decentralized solar energy could reshape Africa’s transport economics over the next two decades, provided that financial conditions and infrastructure improve in parallel.

Abdoullah Diop