• LNG exports from sub-Saharan Africa forecast to rise from 35.7 bcm in 2024 to 98 bcm in 2034.
• Nigeria and Mozambique to drive growth, with Senegal and Mauritania entering market.
• Congo, Gabon, Angola, and Equatorial Guinea to expand exports, Tanzania and Namibia face delays.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from sub-Saharan Africa are expected to surge from 35.7 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2024 to 98 bcm in 2034, a 174.5% increase, according to a report by Fitch Solutions released on August 29, 2025. Growth will be driven by rising output in Nigeria and Mozambique and the market entry of new producers including Mauritania and Senegal.

The report, titled Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) LNG Growth Momentum To Persist, said net exports will reach 38.1 bcm in 2025 (+6.7% year-on-year), 47.9 bcm in 2026 (+25.6%), and peak at 101.4 bcm in 2031 before stabilizing above 98 bcm by 2034. Total LNG production in the region is projected to grow 172.2% over the decade.

Nigeria will remain the top exporter in the medium term, supported by the Nigeria LNG Limited’s Train 7 project, which is 80% complete as of June 2025 and set to boost capacity by 35%. Nigerian LNG exports are projected to reach 26.5 bcm in 2026 (+32.5% year-on-year).

Mozambique is expected to ramp up gradually as foreign financing returns, underscored by the US Exim Bank’s $4.7 billion facility for TotalEnergies’ Mozambique LNG megaproject.

TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil are targeting first LNG output in Mozambique by 2030. The country’s total natural gas production is projected to rise from 9.1 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2025 to 62.7 bcm by 2034. The southern African nation could overtake Nigeria as Africa’s top LNG exporter as soon as 2030. Exports are seen peaking at 48.4 bcm in 2034, supported by the expansion of Coral FLNG and large projects in Areas 1 and 4.

Uncertainty surrounds major projects in Tanzania and Namibia.

Other countries—including Mauritania, Senegal, Congo, and Gabon—will also strengthen their position among Africa’s LNG exporters in the coming years. Their combined exports are expected to rise from 4.8 bcm in 2024 to 56.0 bcm in 2034, backed by investment in offshore floating LNG (FLNG) facilities that help monetize gas.

Mauritania and Senegal entered the LNG export market in 2025 with first output from the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) field. Phase 1 of GTA, operated by BP with Kosmos Energy, PETROSEN, and SMH, started up in late 2024 and loaded its first 174,000 m³ cargo in April 2025. Output is expected at 2.3–2.4 million tons per year, with 20–25% allocated to domestic markets by 2027 to lower energy costs.

Congo shipped its first LNG cargo in 2024, following the April 2023 inauguration of Eni’s Marine XII gas project. Gabon is accelerating sector development under its Gas Master Plan, which includes a $983 million facility in Port-Gentil and a $2 billion LNG terminal at Cap Lopez, with a floating unit slated to enter service in 2026.

Historic LNG producers—Nigeria, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, and Cameroon—are together expected to raise their total exports from 30.9 bcm in 2024 to 44.5 bcm by 2034.

The report also highlights significant potential for large onshore LNG projects in Tanzania and Namibia, though progress may be slowed by uncertainty over future market prices. In Tanzania, the $42 billion Lindi LNG project continues to move forward as the government and its partners—Equinor, Shell, and ExxonMobil—work to resolve key fiscal and regulatory issues. Construction, however, has not yet begun, leaving the project timeline uncertain.

In Namibia, assessments of the Venus and Graff-1X fields confirm a high gas-to-oil ratio, strengthening prospects for future LNG exports. Yet the added cost of gas capture infrastructure remains a hurdle. If Venus reaches a final investment decision in 2026, with first oil expected in 2030, gas exports could become feasible, though LNG output is excluded from current forecasts. Meanwhile, the Kudu Gas Field project, under development by BW Energy and partners, targets first LNG production in 2026, but large-scale exports remain unlikely in the short term.