• The Cobalt Institute forecasts 4% growth in 2025 and 6% in 2026.

• DR Congo’s export quotas aim to lift prices after a global glut.

• Battery makers warn that high prices could speed up substitution.

Global demand for cobalt is expected to rise by 4% in 2025 and by 6% in 2026, according to the Cobalt Institute. The forecast comes as the market faces the impact of supply restrictions imposed by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the world’s leading supplier, which could accelerate substitution efforts for the metal.

Since February 2025, Kinshasa has suspended cobalt exports to counter falling prices caused by a global surplus. Authorities later introduced export quotas for mining companies, allowing shipments to resume officially from mid-October. Through these supply limits, the DRC aims to ease the surplus and drive prices higher.

Since the embargo began, cobalt prices have more than doubled on the London Metal Exchange, reaching over $44,000 per ton on October 17. However, a further price surge could push battery manufacturers to move away from cobalt, warned Kenny Ives, Chief Commercial Officer of China’s CMOC, the world’s largest cobalt producer active in the DRC.

“If you starve the downstream of cobalt units, clearly there are different chemistry options and the Chinese and others will switch,” Ives told Bloomberg.

Although lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries have gained ground in recent years, Ives’ warning should be seen in context. Current cobalt prices remain well below the 2018 and 2022 peaks, when the metal traded as high as $95,000 per ton. Moreover, the DRC’s restrictions have hit CMOC hardest. The company declared force majeure on delivery contracts in June but has since received the largest export quota authorized for the rest of 2025—6,500 tons, compared with 2,775 tons for Glencore—still far below its usual pace, with 61,073 tons produced in the first half of the year.

The Cobalt Institute’s forecast tempers CMOC’s concerns and aligns with other analysts. William Talbot, head of research at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, said that 43% of lithium-ion battery demand in 2025 will come from chemistries containing cobalt.

“While LFP’s market share is expected to rise, NCM (nickel-manganese-cobalt) batteries will remain important, especially in Western markets. There is room in the market for both chemistries,” Talbot told Ecofin Agency.

The DRC has set a maximum export volume of 18,125 tons of cobalt for the last quarter of 2025. This annual level is about half the volumes exported in 2023 and 2024 but close to the 2020 total. The evolution of the Congolese strategy will depend on how cobalt prices and battery demand develop.