(Ecofin Agency) - • Copper supply could fall short by 40% by 2035, says IEA, citing underinvestment
• UNCTAD estimates $250B needed to develop 80 new mines by 2030
• Long timelines, slow funding, and growing demand risk a global bottleneck

Copper, a key metal in the energy transition, is facing rising demand that current supply is struggling to meet. From electric vehicles to renewable energy systems, the global economy’s shift toward decarbonization is intensifying pressure on copper supply chains. However, the sector remains constrained by limited investment and operational challenges.

The copper supply deficit could widen to 40% by 2035, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). This projection, featured in the Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 published on May 21, highlights how current mining activity falls short of anticipated demand, driven by the growth of artificial intelligence technologies and energy infrastructure development.

Multiple factors are limiting the capacity of global copper supply to respond. Since 1991, average mine yields have declined by 40%. In parallel, exploration efforts have yielded diminishing returns, of 239 copper deposits discovered between 1990 and 2023, only 14 were found in the past decade.

Our Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 includes an updated interactive online tool allowing users to explore our data on key energy transition minerals

It offers access to demand projections under various scenarios & technology trends

Try it out ➡️ https://t.co/yq9QQEY9ho pic.twitter.com/wkBd13hcmx

— International Energy Agency (@IEA) May 22, 2025

Even when new deposits are identified, long project development timelines pose a significant obstacle. The IEA estimates that it takes an average of 17 years to bring a copper mine online after discovery. A separate report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) echoes this concern, noting that copper projects often require 15 to 25 years to reach production.

To meet future demand, UNCTAD estimates that 80 new copper mines must be developed by 2030, requiring up to $250 billion in investment. Yet overall funding for critical minerals remains far below required levels. Of the $360 to $450 billion needed to ensure supply by 2030, as much as $270 billion is still lacking. Copper alone accounts for 36% of this investment gap.

The IEA emphasizes that a mix of supply and demand-side measures will be necessary to close the gap, these include new mine investment, improved material efficiency, substitution strategies, and greater recycling.

Global Trade Update (May 2025): Focus on critical minerals – copper in the new green and digital economy https://t.co/yfzOK2VkFa

— Diane SAYINZOGA ?? (@SAYINZOGADiane) May 16, 2025

UNCTAD proposes easing permitting procedures, offering financial incentives, adopting advanced extraction technologies, and improving collaboration between major producers and smaller operators to accelerate project delivery.

Despite these recommendations, the report does not present a clear path to resolving the shortfall by 2030. In the face of investor caution, extended lead times, and rising demand, the risk of a copper supply bottleneck remains high. Without urgent, coordinated intervention, shortages in this critical metal could delay progress on global energy transition goals.