• China signaled interest in Madagascar’s mining sector as its ambassador sought “close collaboration” with the new government.

• The U.S. firm Energy Fuels already controls the Toliara mineral sands project, which could deliver 21,800 tons of monazite per year for 38 years.

• Madagascar’s political transition and its 5% mining-sector GDP share create an opening for foreign powers competing for critical minerals.

The Toliara project in Madagascar returned to U.S. ownership in 2024 after Energy Fuels regained control. With significant reserves of mineral sands and rare earths, the project underscores the richness of Madagascar’s subsoil, which continues to attract major foreign powers.

China is quietly expanding its outreach to Madagascar’s new authorities as it seeks a role in developing the country’s mineral resources. On Wednesday, 26 November, Chinese Ambassador Ji Ping met Minister of Mines Carl Andriamparany and requested “close” cooperation to strengthen Madagascar’s attractiveness for mining investment. His request comes as U.S. company Energy Fuels pushes ahead with development of the Toliara mineral sands project.

China and Madagascar already maintain a modest mining partnership, including a memorandum of understanding on mining-sector training at the University of Antananarivo. The ambassador aims to deepen this cooperation, especially in geological mapping. According to a statement from the Ministry of Mines, Mr. Ping also “expressed his desire to encourage Chinese investors to invest in Madagascar.”

The meeting produced no concrete agreements. However, China’s interest arrives during a sensitive political transition. Democratically elected President Andry Rajoelina was ousted in October by the military under Colonel Michaël Randrianirina. The new regime is seeking investors to unlock the potential of Madagascar’s mining sector, which contributed just 5% of GDP in 2023 despite sizable reserves of minerals essential for the energy transition.

Madagascar is Africa’s second-largest graphite producer and also extracts nickel, cobalt and rare earths—resources that fuel global competition among major powers. Chinese mining companies, already active in the DRC for cobalt and copper and in Mali for lithium, could use Madagascar to further consolidate their influence over Africa’s critical minerals. This influence is increasingly challenged by the Trump administration, which seeks African partnerships to reduce U.S. dependence on China as part of its broader trade conflict with Beijing.

With the Energy Fuels project able to supply 21,800 tons of monazite per year for 38 years, the United States already holds a strategic advantage. The company expects to reach a final investment decision in 2026 and plans to begin commercial production in 2028, pending regulatory approval.

Toliara’s progress has faced setbacks. Between 2019 and 2024, social opposition and environmental concerns hindered development. At the end of 2024, Energy Fuels signed a memorandum of understanding with the now-deposed Rajoelina administration, which included $80 million in community investment commitments. The future of this emerging partnership depends on decisions by Madagascar’s new authorities as China increasingly asserts its presence.

This article was initially published in French by Emiliano Tossou

Adapted in English by Ange Jason Quenum