• Nearly 200 containers disappeared in Southern African waters in 2024.
• Diversions via the Cape of Good Hope due to Red Sea attacks increase risks.
• Increased cargo losses, extended shipping times, and higher freight rates heighten supply chain vulnerability.

The often-underestimated loss of cargo at sea significantly impacts the African supply chain, already strained by various international crises. In 2024, nearly 200 containers vanished in the seas of the continent's southern region.

The risk of cargo loss has escalated in the waters bordering Southern Africa. This increase stems from vessels rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope since Houthi attacks began in the Red Sea. The "Future of Maritime Safety Report," published on September 11, by Inmarsat, attributes this situation to notable cyclonic activity between November and April across the southwestern Indian Ocean, off Madagascar, Mauritius, and Reunion.

The document reports the loss of nearly 200 containers in the region in 2024. This figure represents 35% of the estimated 576 containers lost globally that year. The combination of this risk with extended shipping delays and increased freight rates (transportation costs) constitutes the primary factor exacerbating the vulnerability of the African maritime supply chain since the start of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in late 2023.

International conventions provide for insurer liability in cases of meteorological incidents (cyclones, storms, violent swells, etc.). However, shipper reimbursement is not automatic. Experts state that a succession of regulated procedures governs the process, which amplifies delays in importers' supply cycles.

Intensified risks generally also imply an increase in insurance premiums. Maritime companies reported an increase to nearly 2% of a vessel's value for Red Sea shipments by late 2024, up from 0.7% in early September. This, in turn, increases carriers' operating costs. They then pass these costs onto market prices for goods, thereby fueling an inflationary situation.

This article was initially published in French by Henoc Dossa

Adapted in English by Ange Jason Quenum