• Union strike disrupts Dangote refinery’s crude supply, and the company fear fuel output.
• Dangote rejects union claims of mass layoffs amid escalating dispute.
• FX relief from naira-for-crude scheme at risk as shutdown intensifies.

A nationwide shutdown order issued on 27 September 2025 by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria has raised fresh uncertainty over operations at the Dangote refinery, Africa’s largest. The union instructed its members to cut crude and gas flows to the plant and halt vessel loadings linked to its supply chain, with the measures set to take effect from 28 September and escalate into a national strike from 29 September.

The action comes at a time when the refinery had begun to play a role in easing pressure on Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves. Since mid-August, the 650,000 barrels-per-day facility has been distributing petrol and diesel directly to retailers under a government-backed “naira-for-crude” programme. The scheme allows the refinery to pay the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited for crude in local currency and take on transport costs itself, bypassing the import system that has dominated the country’s fuel supply for decades.

By shifting volumes into local refining and removing importers from the chain, the refinery was estimated to have eliminated between US $500 million and US $700 million a month from the foreign-exchange demand queue. Market participants noted that this reduction contributed to a narrowing of the gap between the official and parallel exchange rates of the naira.

The union has linked its action to the alleged dismissal of about 800 Nigerian workers who had joined its ranks. It accused Dangote Industries of seeking to replace them with more than 2,000 expatriates, largely from India, in breach of Nigerian labour laws and the 2010 Oil and Gas Industry Content Development Act. PENGASSAN also said the dismissals violated international labour conventions and the constitutional rights of the affected employees.

Dangote Industries has rejected the accusations, describing the strike directive as unlawful and damaging to the economy. It said the dismissals concerned a small number of staff whose actions were judged to have compromised operational security, and that the refinery remained predominantly staffed by Nigerian nationals. The company said the plant, which represents a $20 billion investment, should be treated as a strategic national asset and protected against disruption.

The refinery only began full operations in August after years of delays. Its role in reducing Nigeria’s dependence on fuel imports had been viewed by the government as a key step in stabilising foreign exchange markets and limiting inflationary pressure. A sustained disruption to its output would risk reversing those gains and forcing a return to costly imports.

PENGASSAN’s national executive council is scheduled to meet on 29 September to decide on the next steps. Lawmakers and consumer groups have already called on both sides to find a resolution, while government ministries are expected to weigh in as the dispute develops.

Idriss Linge