• Africa's milk output rose 17% from 2013 to 2023
• Imports hit $7.5B in 2023 due to low yields, rising demand
• Policies focus on boosting yields, cutting imports, improving supply chains

African countries’ milk production rose 17% between 2013 and 2023, increasing from 45.5 million to 53.2 million tons, according to the Barometer of African Agriculture released in October by the Foundation for Agriculture and Rurality in the World (FARM), the Pan-African Farmers Organization (PAFO), and French farmers and international development (AFDI). Cows account for 79% of the continent’s milk output, though sheep, buffalo, goats, and camels also contribute.

African countries’ milk production rose 17% between 2013 and 2023, increasing from 45.5 million to 53.2 million tons. [...] Yet, Weak domestic supply has driven a surge in dairy imports as population growth and urbanization fuel demand.

Despite the decade-long growth, Africa produces only 5% of the world’s milk, even though it holds 20% of the global cattle population. The gap reflects the dominance of extensive farming systems and low animal productivity. In Senegal, for instance, local breeds yield a maximum of four liters of milk per day, compared with around 20 liters for imported breeds. In Ethiopia, home to Africa’s largest cattle herd, estimated at 70 million, average milk output is just 1.5 liters per cow per day.

$7.5 Billion in Dairy Imports

Weak domestic supply has driven a surge in dairy imports as population growth and urbanization fuel demand. In 2023, Africa imported $7.5 billion worth of dairy products, mainly traditional milk powder, fat-filled milk powder (FFMP), and infant formula, which together made up 76% of total purchases.

East Africa is the continent’s dairy hub, accounting for 48% of Africa’s total milk production in 2023 with 25.4 million tons. The region also recorded the fastest growth over the past decade,26% between 2013 and 2023. Kenya, Ethiopia, Sudan, Tanzania, and South Sudan are the main producers, while Uganda has emerged as a major exporter of milk powder.

In West Africa, fat-filled milk powder accounted for about two-thirds of dairy imports and nearly 70% of dairy consumption in most capitals in 2019, the report said. Algeria remains the continent’s largest market, representing 22% of African dairy imports and ranking as the world’s second-largest milk powder importer after China. It is followed by Egypt (10%), Nigeria (9%), Libya (8%), Morocco (6.5%), and Senegal (5%). New Zealand is Africa’s top dairy supplier with exports exceeding $1 billion, ahead of the Netherlands, France, Ireland, and Germany.

East Africa is the continent’s dairy hub, accounting for 48% of Africa’s total milk production in 2023 with 25.4 million tons. The region also recorded the fastest growth over the past decade,26% between 2013 and 2023. Kenya, Ethiopia, Sudan, Tanzania, and South Sudan are the main producers, while Uganda has emerged as a major exporter of milk powder. Kampala recently signed a deal to supply Algeria with milk powder worth an estimated $500 million.

Policies Struggle to Keep Up with Demand

Many African governments have adopted active policies to boost agricultural and livestock production through subsidies, public investment, and industrial programs. Algeria’s interventionist approach includes large subsidies for farmers, regulated milk prices, heifer imports, and the establishment of dairy farms in desert areas.

Other countries have opted for more market-oriented strategies. South Africa emphasizes exports and limits barriers to milk powder imports used in manufacturing dairy products for the continental market. Kenya has taken a middle path with its Dairy Industry Sustainability Roadmap 2023-2032, focusing on infrastructure and quality certification while promoting public-private partnerships to double production.

Across several countries, genetic improvement of livestock and the introduction of high-yield breeds are seen as key levers to expand local milk supply and reduce import dependence. In Nigeria, Arla Foods has partnered with VikingGenetics to introduce sexed “X-Vik” semen from Nordic cattle breeds capable of producing up to 40 liters per day,18 to 25 times more than local breeds. The initiative aims to raise yields and unlock the potential of a sector that still relies on imports for over 75% of its dairy needs.

Across several countries, genetic improvement of livestock and the introduction of high-yield breeds are seen as key levers to expand local milk supply and reduce import dependence. In Nigeria, Arla Foods has partnered with VikingGenetics to introduce sexed “X-Vik” semen from Nordic cattle breeds capable of producing up to 40 liters per day,18 to 25 times more than local breeds. The initiative aims to raise yields and unlock the potential of a sector that still relies on imports for over 75% of its dairy needs.

Senegal and Cameroon have also imported heifers in recent years as part of national breeding programs. Yet, despite these efforts, rapid urbanization, changing diets, and population growth continue to strain supply. The report concludes that both public and private investment must expand not only in milk production but also in downstream segments such as storage, processing, and distribution to meet rising demand in the coming decades.

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