• The World Bank now expects Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy to grow 3.8% in 2025, up from 3.5%.
• Inflation is easing, currencies are stabilizing, and private consumption is rebounding.
• Despite this momentum, growth remains too weak to significantly cut poverty levels.

The World Bank announced today it has raised its 2025 growth forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa to 3.8%, up from 3.5% projected in April. The revision comes despite persistent global economic uncertainty, trade tensions, and high borrowing costs.

In its “Africa’s Pulse” report, the Bank said the region’s growth is expected to keep accelerating, averaging 4.4% in 2025 and 2026, slightly above its previous 4.3% estimate.

Growth projections for 2025 have been revised upward for 30 of the region’s 47 economies, including key players such as Ethiopia (+0.7 point), Nigeria (+0.6 point), and Côte d’Ivoire (+0.5 point). However, forecasts were lowered for Angola, Botswana, Mozambique, Senegal, and Zambia.

The stronger regional outlook is mainly supported by improved terms of trade in several countries, helping stabilize or even strengthen local currencies. Falling inflation across many economies has allowed a gradual easing of monetary policy, boosting household purchasing power and opening room for further interest rate cuts. These conditions are driving a rebound in private consumption and investment, although ongoing fiscal tightening in some countries may still weigh on growth.

After peaking at 9.3% in 2022, the median inflation rate in Sub-Saharan Africa fell to 4.5% in 2024 and is expected to remain between 3.9% and 4% annually during 2025–2026. The number of countries with single-digit inflation has risen from 27 in 2022 to 37 in 2025–2026. About 60% of countries in the region saw inflation slow this year, though nine economies—including Angola, Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, Nigeria, São Tomé and Príncipe, Sudan, Zambia, and Zimbabwe—are still expected to post double-digit inflation.

Moderate progress on poverty reduction

Easing inflation has been helped by better commodity prices and more stable exchange rates. In August 2025, the World Bank’s food price index dropped 4% year-on-year, while Brent crude oil prices fell 16%.

At the same time, major regional currencies have strengthened or held steady against major currencies, supported by looser financial conditions. Ghana’s cedi appreciated 20% against the US dollar during the first eight months of 2025, and Zambia’s kwacha gained 16% since the start of the year. These trends helped lower domestic fuel and food prices in many countries.

The report adds that Sub-Saharan Africa appears relatively shielded from the impact of higher US tariffs, given its limited trade exposure to that market and a growing shift toward other partners.

Still, regional prospects remain vulnerable to policy uncertainty under US President Donald Trump, weak investor appetite, tighter global financing, and high debt burdens that make many economies more exposed to shocks. The number of countries in or near debt distress has nearly tripled, from eight in 2014 to 23 in 2025, driven by heavy post-crisis borrowing, weak revenue collection, and greater reliance on non-concessional funding outside traditional multilateral channels.

The World Bank warned that current GDP growth levels remain too low to significantly reduce extreme poverty or improve income distribution. Real income per capita is projected to rise by 1.3% in 2025, up from 1% in 2024, and to reach 1.9% in 2026–2027. While this shows gradual recovery after a decade of shocks, it remains too slow to lift large populations out of poverty.

After peaking at 50% in 2024, the poverty rate—measured at $3 per day per person in 2021 purchasing power parity—is expected to fall to 48.4% by 2027. The total number of people living in poverty is projected to increase from 576 million in 2022 to 671 million in 2027.