Overall sales of off-grid solar kits in Sub-Saharan Africa saw only a 1% increase during the first six months of 2025. This near-stagnation was primarily driven by a sharp drop in cash sales, which occurred as several major international energy access programs concluded and new regulatory changes were implemented in certain countries.

Sales of off-grid solar kits using the Pay-As-You-Go (PAYGo) model reached a record 2.35 million units in Sub-Saharan Africa during the first half of 2025, up 54% from the same period in 2024. The data comes from the report Semi-Annual Global Off-Grid Solar Market Reports – Sub-Saharan Africa: PAYGo Sales Reach Record While Cash Sales Drop to a Five-Year Low, published by the Global Off-Grid Lighting Association (GOGLA) on Wednesday, November 5.

The report shows that PAYGo sales, where customers purchase solar kits in installments, surpassed cash sales for the first time since 2018. The surge reflects rising demand for multi-light systems and small Solar Home Systems (SHS) with capacities between 11 and 20 watts peak (Wp).

Overall, however, total off-grid solar kit sales in the region grew by only 1% between January and June 2025 compared to the same period a year earlier. This marginal growth was mainly due to a 35% drop in cash sales, which fell to their lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic at 1.44 million units. The decline was driven largely by weaker demand for smaller products such as lanterns and compact multi-lamp kits. Industry stakeholders attribute the slowdown to the conclusion of several large donor-funded programs and delays in new project launches.

The report also noted strong momentum in related markets: sales of off-grid solar-powered appliances in Sub-Saharan Africa rose 26% in the first half of 2025 from a year earlier. This growth was almost entirely fueled by rebounding fan sales in West Africa, where high cooling needs and frequent bundling of fans with solar home systems have boosted demand.

Mixed Trends Across the Region

Regional trends varied widely. In East Africa, energy access initiatives supported rapid deployment of solar kits in countries such as Uganda and Madagascar, while other markets saw temporary declines due to shifting program frameworks and funding cycles.

Uganda’s solar kit sales more than doubled year-on-year in the first half of 2025, helped by World Bank subsidies under the Electricity Access Scale-Up Program (EASP). Madagascar recorded a 56% increase, supported by government initiatives and the World Bank-backed Off-Grid Market Development Fund (OMDF). In contrast, Rwanda’s market contracted sharply, down 91% year-on-year, after the transition from the previous Renewable Energy Fund (REF) to the new World Bank–financed Accelerating Sustainable and Clean Energy Access Transformation (ASCENT) program. The new framework imposed stricter product eligibility standards, reportedly causing a temporary pause in new orders.

In West Africa, overall sales climbed 22% from the first half of 2024, led by the expansion of the PAYGo model and a rebound in Nigeria. Sales in Africa’s most populous country rose 33% following the launch of the government’s Distributed Access through Renewable Energy Scale-up (DARES) program. Conversely, sales in Burkina Faso plunged 83% due to new regulations requiring companies to meet local content quotas for solar panel sourcing in order to obtain import authorizations.

Walid Kéfi