• Madagascar faces a political crisis as President Andry Rajoelina reportedly fled the country amid mass protests and army unrest.
• The crisis comes as the IMF supports key reforms through $107 million in recent funding under its Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).
• The unrest threatens to derail fiscal consolidation and energy-sector reforms meant to stabilize the economy and reduce public subsidies.

Madagascar’s deepening political crisis comes at a sensitive moment for the country’s economy, which has been undergoing fiscal reforms supported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and development partners.

According to international media, President Andry Rajoelina left the country on October 12 aboard a French military aircraft amid growing protests and divisions within the security forces. If confirmed, this would mark a new escalation in weeks of political tension.

Since late September, several cities — including the capital, Antananarivo — have witnessed protests sparked by water and electricity shortages. The demonstrations, initiated by a youth collective known as GenZ, have evolved into a broader political movement demanding the president’s resignation.

The UN Human Rights Office reported at least 22 deaths and over 100 injuries linked to clashes between protesters and security forces. Elements of the army, notably the elite Capsat unit, declared their support for the demonstrators. Rajoelina condemned what he called “an illegal attempt to seize power” and urged dialogue to restore calm.

The IMF had already noted rising fiscal pressures and weak domestic revenue collection during its mission to Madagascar from September 4 to 10. The Fund said government spending in the first half of 2025 exceeded tax revenues, forcing authorities to activate contingency measures to remain within budget limits.

The mission also highlighted difficulties in the mining sector and an inflation rate that, while easing, remained elevated at 7.9% in July.

In July 2025, the IMF approved the second review of its financial programs for Madagascar, releasing $107 million under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). These programs aim to strengthen fiscal governance, cut energy subsidies, and restore the financial viability of the state-owned utility JIRAMA.

The IMF commended progress in implementing JIRAMA’s 2025–2028 recovery plan, which seeks to modernize infrastructure, reduce operating deficits, and phase out public subsidies. It also welcomed the continuation of the automatic fuel pricing mechanism launched in January 2025, designed to curb fiscal risks and free up resources for social spending.

The full economic impact of the crisis remains unclear. The IMF forecasts Madagascar’s GDP to grow 4% in 2025, down from an earlier estimate of 4.6%, amid higher import costs and lower external aid. The government had targeted 5% growth for the year before the current unrest.

This article was initially published in French by Louis-Nino Kansoun

Adapted in English by Ange Jason Quenum