• The new projection marks a 0.1-point increase from July estimates.
• Nigeria and South Africa see upgraded forecasts at 3.9% and 1.1%, respectively.
• The IMF expects regional growth to reach 4.4% in 2026 despite global risks.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its 2025 growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa to 4.1%, up from its July projection of 4.0%, according to the latest World Economic Outlook report published on, October 14, 2025.

The figure also represents a 0.3-point increase compared with the April 2025 estimate. The IMF said the revision reflects the global economy’s gradual adjustment to a policy landscape reshaped by new trade measures and tariff realignments that have eased some earlier tensions.

Among the region’s largest economies, the Fund raised Nigeria’s growth outlook to 3.9% from 3% and South Africa’s to 1.1% from 1%. However, forecasts for several other countries were revised downward due to weaker international trade conditions and reduced foreign aid.

Earlier this year, a tariff war erupted after the United States sharply increased import duties on several trading partners, including African nations. The resulting retaliatory measures, particularly from China, heightened global trade tensions and prompted the IMF to downgrade growth projections in April.

Looking ahead, the Fund expects regional growth to accelerate to 4.4% in 2026, though risks remain elevated if trade frictions persist.

Globally, the IMF also revised growth upward to 3.2% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026, representing a 0.4-point increase for next year.