• If malaria prevention funding collapses, sub-Saharan Africa could lose $83 billion in GDP by 2030 and suffer nearly 1 million additional deaths.
• Under full funding, the region could gain $230 billion in GDP, avert 865 million cases, and save 1.86 million lives by 2030.
• A 20 % funding cut scenario would cost $5.14 billion in GDP and cause 33 million extra cases and 82,000 preventable deaths.

A sharp resurgence of malaria triggered by insufficient prevention funding could erode $83 billion from sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP and incur nearly 1 million additional deaths by 2030, warn the Africa Leaders’ Malaria Alliance (ALMA) and Malaria No More UK.

The report, The Price of Retreat: How underinvestment in malaria risks resurgence, lost growth, and a generation’s future, documents that after two decades of steady progress—during which malaria mortality halved—the fight has stalled amid funding shortfalls. It notes that the 2024 UN global malaria report recorded 263 million cases worldwide in 2023, up by 11 million from the prior year, highlighting that a lack of preventive program funding has undermined progress.

Simultaneously, the report flags a “perfect storm” of climate change, rising resistance to drugs and insecticides, trade disruption, and global insecurity, which could further impair interventions and trigger a large-scale resurgence.

Africa—home to 95 % of global malaria cases and deaths—faces the greatest exposure. Its population nearly doubled in the last 30 years. The continent recorded 590,000 deaths from malaria in 2023, and several countries already reported increased cases in the first half of 2025 following heavy rains.

The report also points out that world leaders will convene in South Africa on 21 November to launch the 8th replenishment of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, which currently accounts for nearly 60 % of all international malaria financing.

ALMA and Malaria No More UK argue that mobilizing resources is not just a health imperative but an economic one: sustained funding protects growth, stabilizes trade, and secures shared prosperity. Conversely, they warn, underfunding could precipitate the worst malaria resurgence in history across a continent that accounts for 19 % of the global population.

Modeling scenarios: losses and gains by 2030

ALMA and Malaria No More UK used econometric models to simulate economic and human impacts under different funding scenarios through 2030.

In a “no prevention” scenario, which assumes a collapse of prevention interventions, the region would lose $83 billion in GDP, incur 525 million extra cases, and suffer 989,675 additional deaths. The analysis estimates $19.7 billion in lost future income for school-age children deprived of education. It also predicts a $3.4 billion hit to trade flows between sub-Saharan Africa and G7 countries.

Under a 20 % cut to Global Fund funding, the region would lose $5.14 billion in GDP and see 33 million extra cases and 82,000 avoidable deaths by 2030.

In the full-funding (GTS target) scenario, the model forecasts $230 billion in GDP gains, 865 million cases averted, 1.86 million lives saved, $34 billion in future earnings for children, and a $10.3 billion increase in trade with G7 nations by the end of the decade.

The report warns that severe underfunding could also amplify school absenteeism, disrupt human capital formation, and compress long-term employment prospects for younger generations.

Wider economic knock-on effects and calls to action

Beyond GDP, the report quantifies sectoral damage: extraction, agriculture, and tourism would all suffer. Mining companies, for instance, face absenteeism, health costs, and operational disruption. In one case, a Zambian sugar firm had eliminated malaria on its estate but warned its gains remain fragile without sustained Global Fund support.

The report urges African leaders to mount a vigorous malaria fight and calls on G7 donor solidarity to ensure a lasting victory.

This article was initially published in French by Walid Kéfi

Adapted in English by Ange Jason Quenum