• New UN report projects 10% drop in emissions by 2035 if pledges are met
• Current efforts still fall short of Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C and 2°C targets
• Findings come two weeks before COP30 summit in Belém, Brazil

Global greenhouse gas emissions could decline by about 10% by 2035 if countries fully implement their current climate plans, according to the latest report from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The report, released on October 28, summarizes Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted by 64 countries between January 2024 and September 2025, representing around 30% of global emissions in 2019.

While the authors caution that the dataset is limited, they indicate this marks the first time the UNFCCC projects a global decline in greenhouse gas emissions, which have continued to rise since 1990. The analysis also finds that NDCs are becoming more comprehensive and credible.

“Countries are increasingly taking a whole-of-economy, whole-of-society approach, with 89% containing economy-wide targets. Adaptation and resilience are becoming increasingly important. Almost three-quarters (73%) of new NDCs include adaptation components,” the report notes.

Despite this progress, the UNFCCC warns that global efforts remain insufficient to align with pathways limiting warming to 2°C — or ideally 1.5°C — above pre-industrial levels. To achieve these goals, greenhouse gas emissions would need to fall by 60% (ranging from 49% to 77%) by 2035 for the 1.5°C target, and by 35% (between 22% and 55%) for the 2°C target, compared with 2019 levels.

The report’s release comes two weeks before COP30, which will take place in Belém, Brazil, from November 10 to 21. It increases pressure on the 196 countries expected to attend. In recent months, both the Brazilian government and civil society groups have called for tangible progress at the summit, which unfolds as the United States — the world’s second-largest emitter after China, accounting for nearly 12% of global emissions — remains outside the Paris Agreement.