• Climate change could cut Uganda’s growth by 3.1% by 2050 without adaptation measures.

• Agriculture, 24% of GDP and employer of 72% of the workforce, faces severe risks.

• Uganda needs $28 billion for adaptation by 2030 but has secured only a fraction so far.

Uganda’s economic growth could fall by 3.1% by 2050 if no adaptation measures are taken against climate change, according to the World Bank’s Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR). Ranked 14th most vulnerable worldwide, Uganda faces mounting risks from heat stress, soil erosion, floods, and erratic rainfall that undermine rain-fed farming.

Agriculture is particularly exposed, accounting for 24% of GDP and employing about 72% of the labor force. By 2050, crop yields could swing between losses of 12% and gains of 12.5%, depending on the scenario. While coffee and sweet bananas may adapt, vegetables are highly vulnerable. Without action, losses on export crops alone could reach $1.5 billion.

In 2024, the agriculture ministry said, poor weather and irregular rainfall hit cereal output, especially maize, causing food prices to soar. The Coalition for Sustainable Agriculture Advocacy (ACSA) reported in May 2025 that staple food prices jumped up to 20% between October and November 2024. Uganda’s Bureau of Statistics also recorded a 3.7% rise in food and non-alcoholic drink prices from August 2024 to August 2025.

The social costs are equally alarming. Severe climate scenarios could push more than 600,000 people into poverty and displace nearly 12 million Ugandans internally. Already, 42% of the population lived below the international poverty line in 2019/2020.

“Climate action is not only essential but offers an opportunity to redefine the country's development trajectory,” said Qimiao Fan, World Bank Country Director for Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, and Uganda.

The government plans to raise at least $4 billion domestically for climate adaptation but total needs are estimated at more than $28 billion by 2030. Kampala is counting on international donors and private investment, with a goal of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 25% by 2030. However, funding commitments remain insufficient.

The World Bank recommends Uganda boost domestic resource mobilization and leverage both international and private financing. It also urges stronger private sector engagement.

“Private investment in climate-smart agriculture, solar irrigation, renewable energy, e-mobility, and green building can enhance food security, energy access, and livable cities—while creating jobs and driving economic growth,” said Mary Porter Peschka, IFC’s Regional Director for East Africa.

Despite these threats, Uganda’s economy still shows positive momentum. The World Bank projects 6.2% growth in 2025, driven by agriculture and services. The government expects average annual growth of 8% over the next five years, spurred by oil production and infrastructure investment in power and transport. Yet this outlook could be derailed if adaptation and energy transition funding fall short.