Africa is warming faster than the rest of the world, the report warns. Despite accounting for just 3.8% of global greenhouse gas emissions, the continent is likely to bear the heavy price of extreme weather events, with severe consequences for agriculture.

Africa is expected to surpass the 1.5°C global warming threshold by 2050, exceeding the most ambitious target set by the Paris Agreement, according to a report published on February 25, 2025, by the Centre for Agriculture and Biosciences International (CABI).

Titled Developing Just Transition Pathways for Africa’s Agriculture Towards Low-Emission and Climate-Resilient Development Under a 1.5°C Global Warming, the report highlights that the Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, aims “to keep global temperature increase well below 2°C and to pursue efforts to limit it even further to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels”.

However, research by Kenyan and Zimbabwean scientists shows that Africa is warming faster than the global average. Over the past 30 years, the continent’s annual temperature has increased by more than 0.5°C per decade. With greenhouse gas concentrations continuing to rise, temperatures will keep climbing across Africa, even though the continent contributes less than 4% of global emissions. The intensity of warming will vary by region.

North Africa, Southern Africa, and West Africa are expected to experience the sharpest temperature increases, particularly in semi-arid and dry areas. Climate models suggest that by mid-century, temperatures could rise between 1.4°C and 2.5°C in North Africa, 1.1°C and 2°C in Southern Africa, and 1.1°C and 1.8°C in West Africa under a moderate emissions scenario.

Rising Temperatures Threaten Food Security

If emissions continue at their current rate, Africa could face a nearly 4°C temperature rise across all regions by the end of the 21st century, the report warns.

Rainfall is projected to decrease by an average of 4% in many parts of Africa by mid-century, while sea levels could rise by half a meter. This would severely impact coastal areas, including the Nile Delta and shorelines in East, North, and West Africa. Extreme weather events like droughts, floods, and tropical cyclones are also expected to become more frequent and intense.

A warming of more than 1.5°C by 2050 would have devastating effects on agriculture and food production across Africa. In West Africa, maize yields could drop by 2% to 57%, sorghum by 8% to 48%, and pearl millet by 7% to 12% by mid-century, depending on the level of warming.

In North Africa, the production of cucurbits (such as melons and gourds) could decline by 10% to 15%, leading to food shortages and rising prices. To adapt, African countries will need to rethink their farming, livestock, and fishing systems.

The report stresses the importance of investing in climate-resilient agriculture, restoring neglected crop and livestock varieties, improving soil fertility, rehabilitating degraded land, protecting ecosystems and biodiversity, enhancing rainwater harvesting, and developing markets to create new trade and distribution opportunities.