• A new report warns that over 40% of tasks in Africa’s outsourcing sector are at high risk of automation.
• Junior roles and women are expected to be hit hardest by the shift.
• The sector still has major job creation potential if the right investments are made.

More than 40% of jobs in Africa’s outsourcing and tech-enabled services sector could be automated by the end of this decade. This is a threat to thousands of jobs, a new report warns.

The study, titled Preparing for AI in the BPO and ITES Sector in Africa, was released on April 4 by consulting firms Caribou Digital and Genesis Analytics, with support from the Mastercard Foundation.

The report says outsourcing is growing fast across the continent and becoming a key part of many economies. If current trends continue, the combined value of Africa’s domestic and international outsourcing markets could reach $35 billion by 2028, growing at an average of 14.2% a year.

South Africa leads the way with a market size of $5.2 billion, followed by Egypt ($4.3 billion), Morocco ($2.9 billion), and Tunisia ($2.4 billion). Emerging players like Kenya, Rwanda, Senegal, Ghana, Uganda, and Nigeria are also gaining ground.

Right now, about 1.1 million people work in the outsourcing industry across Africa—just 2% of the global total. But the sector’s job creation potential is enormous. If Africa can increase its global market share by just 10 percentage points, it could create 5 million direct and 7 million indirect jobs. That kind of growth is possible if the continent follows the paths taken by India and the Philippines.

A more modest but still significant forecast suggests the industry could add 1.8 million direct jobs by 2030.

To reach that level, however, countries need to invest in skills training, better internet access, office space, and equipment. There's also a need to shift how global clients view Africa's outsourcing capabilities. But those kinds of changes don’t happen overnight—and the rise of AI could complicate the picture even more.

Junior roles and women most at risk

Generative AI is already transforming how work gets done in the sector. Tools like ChatGPT, Microsoft Copilot, and internal chatbots are helping workers boost productivity and accuracy. But the same tools could soon take over many of their tasks.

Using detailed modeling, the report finds that more than 40% of current tasks in the sector could be automated by 2030. The segments most exposed include finance and accounting (44%), customer service (40%), IT services (40%), and AI data services (35%).

Within those areas, junior roles are the most vulnerable. Over half (52%) of the tasks in entry-level jobs could be automated, while only 3% are considered safe from automation. That’s because junior roles tend to involve repetitive tasks, which are exactly the kind of work AI can handle.

By contrast, senior roles are much more secure. Just 4% of their tasks are at risk, and 40% are seen as highly resilient to automation.

Gender disparities also show up in the data. On average, tasks performed by women are 10% more likely to be automated than those performed by men. Women's roles also score lower in terms of resilience: only 8% of their tasks are considered automation-proof, compared to 12% for men.

A call for new skills

Despite the risks, AI could also open up new opportunities. As machines take over some tasks, there will be growing demand for new roles focused on managing and guiding these technologies.

That’s why the report calls for stronger investments in training programs that focus on the roles most at risk of automation. It also urges the creation of well-equipped AI centers that can support new types of jobs.

If done right, this shift could help workers move into higher-skilled, better-paying roles—turning a looming threat into a new chance for growth.

Walid Kéfi