• Kenya avocado output seen rising 4.8% to 727,000 tonnes

• Growth driven by new orchards, improved farming practices

• Exports to recover, but Red Sea disruptions pose risks

Kenya’s avocado harvest is expected to reach 727,000 tonnes in 2026, according to a U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report published on April 7 on the country’s market.

That would mark a 4.8% increase from the previous year and a second consecutive year of growth after a decline in 2024.

The USDA attributes the increase to the maturation of newly planted orchards, along with gradual improvements in farm management and quality control.

It noted that since 2020, the area under avocado cultivation in Kenya has expanded at a compound annual growth rate of about 6%, driven by support from national and local authorities. These efforts include subsidies for seedlings and fertilizers, as well as the designation of avocados as a priority export crop.

Kenya benefits from two harvest seasons annually, giving it a competitive edge. The main season runs from March to August, while a smaller harvest typically takes place between October and December.

Export outlook

For the 2026 marketing year, the USDA expects exports to recover, with volumes rebounding to around 130,000 tonnes. In 2025, Kenya’s shipments fell 23.4% year-on-year to 121,000 tonnes, the agency reported.

The decline was due to quality issues linked to premature harvesting and shipping disruptions along the Red Sea and Suez Canal route, a key corridor for exports to Europe, Kenya’s main market.

Attacks by Houthi rebels on commercial vessels in the Red Sea in 2025 heightened security risks, forcing shipping companies to reroute away from the Suez Canal.

A report by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) published in January indicated that export capacity had been constrained by a near doubling of transit times to Europe due to the Red Sea crisis, along with a surge in shipping costs.

With tensions in the Persian Gulf this year raising concerns about further disruptions to maritime traffic in the Red Sea, the outlook for a recovery in Kenya’s avocado exports remains uncertain.

Stéphanas Assocle