• South Africa exported $1.3 billion of agricultural goods to the Middle East in 2025

• Rising geopolitical tensions disrupt logistics and increase shipping costs

• Producers explore alternative markets in Asia, Europe, and the United States

South Africa faces growing risks to its agricultural exports to the Middle East as geopolitical tensions escalate following military developments involving the United States, Israel, and Iran since late February 2026.

The Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa said in a note published on March 23 that the crisis threatens access to a key export market for the country’s agricultural sector.

This concern reflects the region’s growing importance. Agbiz data show that Middle Eastern countries, including the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait, imported $1.3 billion worth of South African agricultural products in 2025.

This figure accounted for 8% of the country’s total agricultural export revenue of $15.1 billion in the same year.

South Africa exports a wide range of products to the region, including citrus fruits, apples and pears, beef, strawberries, goat and sheep meat, grapes, apricots, cherries, peaches, various nuts, and maize.

However, Agbiz said the deteriorating security environment increases logistics costs and creates uncertainty over trade continuity, even as export seasons approach.

“Shipping costs are increasing […] Citrus, strawberry and maize harvest seasons will soon begin across the country, and as long as the conflict in the Middle East continues, trade disruptions will persist,” the organization said in its note.

The conflict has also disrupted maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global trade and South African shipments to the region.

As a result, major shipping companies, including Maersk, Mediterranean Shipping Company, and CMA CGM, have introduced new surcharges in recent weeks to cover heightened risks and additional operating costs.

Agbiz said agricultural companies are already assessing whether other markets can absorb volumes initially destined for the Middle East.

The organization recommended that exporters explore opportunities in Asian markets such as China, India, and Singapore, as well as in Europe and the Americas.

“The European Union and the United Kingdom could also increase their share. For citrus, exports to the United States now benefit from relatively low tariffs [10%, or even zero for some products such as nuts, oranges and juice],” the note said.

Beyond the immediate threat to Middle Eastern market share in 2026, the South African agro-industrial sector could face slower export growth if the conflict persists and alternative markets fail to absorb redirected volumes.

South Africa has recorded six consecutive years of growth in agricultural and food exports, which rose from nearly $10 billion in 2020 to $15.1 billion in 2025.

This article was initially published in French by Stéphanas Assocle 

Adapted in English by Ange J.A de Berry Quenum