Failing to anticipate market shifts can be costly for African businesses operating in increasingly competitive and volatile environments. Yet many still lag in their ability to monitor their business environment and turn available information into actionable insights.

In this interview with Ecofin Agency, Dr Beaugrain Doumongue, an expert in economic intelligence and founder of the consulting and training firm STRATCO, examines the current shortcomings in market intelligence practices across Africa and the conditions required to turn them into an effective strategic tool.

Ecofin Agency: Many African companies say they conduct strategic or competitive intelligence. In practice, what does that mean, and what are they actually doing when they refer to “monitoring”?

Beaugrain Doumongue: Monitoring the business environment means maintaining constant awareness and staying alert to useful information, as close to the source as possible. It involves gathering information and turning it into actionable insights that provide a competitive edge in difficult or highly competitive markets.

In many African companies, monitoring is often limited to tracking industry news, browsing press articles, scrolling through social media, or skimming public reports. These practices can yield useful information, but they fall well short of a robust strategic intelligence system.

Many African companies still treat monitoring as simple browsing, when it should function as a structured intelligence process driven by decision-making needs.

For these organizations, monitoring is still treated as simple browsing, when it should function as a structured intelligence process driven by decision-making needs. The real question is not “What information did we find?” but “What decisions do we need to inform? What risks do we need to prevent? What opportunities do we need to seize?”

In practice, what is called “monitoring” often amounts to little more than an accumulation of unprioritized information, with no monitoring plan, no clear focus areas, no reliability criteria, no alert mechanisms, and, above all, no conversion into strategic decisions. In short, information overload is still too often mistaken for strategic control.

Amid successive crises, technological disruption and intensifying competition, many African companies remain stuck in an outdated approach, mistaking raw data for decision-making value. This creates an illusion of knowledge that masks a gradual decline, often driven by a failure to adapt, anticipate and respond to a changing competitive landscape.

When competing with international players experienced in aggressive markets, the gap quickly becomes evident.

EA: Why is relying on publicly available online and press information not enough to produce effective strategic intelligence that informs decision-making?

BD: This stems from the methodological limitations of these sources, which make it difficult to build meaningful strategic insight. It also reflects a deep-seated lack of experience in collecting and using firsthand information. The result is a persistent inability to identify early market shifts, technological changes or shifts in competitive positioning, allowing weak signals to go unnoticed.

Strategic intelligence begins where basic information ends, when an organization is able to collect high-quality information, cross-check it, analyze it and turn it into actionable insights or working hypotheses for decision-makers

Yet strategic intelligence begins where basic information ends, when an organization is able to collect high-quality information, cross-check it, analyze it and turn it into actionable insights or working hypotheses for decision-makers. Strategic decisions are not based solely on established facts, but also on well-grounded assumptions, scenarios and stakeholder dynamics.

These elements are rarely visible in the press. They are gathered at trade shows, within business networks, through field conversations, and from suppliers, customers, regulators, former employees, subcontractors, logistics partners and even indirect competitors. That is where real strategic depth is built. The core challenge of strategic intelligence is to operate with discipline and responsibility.

EA: Based on your experience, what are the most common mistakes African companies make when analyzing competitors or anticipating market developments?

BD:  Three mistakes come up repeatedly: an over-reliance on open-source and easily accessible information; a failure to gather primary intelligence from the market, partners or broader ecosystems; and an inability to turn raw data into genuine strategic understanding.

Two more serious mistakes can be added. The first is the failure to embed monitoring within corporate governance. In many organizations, monitoring is neither supported by senior leadership nor linked to commercial, industrial, financial or institutional decisions. It remains a peripheral activity with little impact. Information is collected, but not used to drive action.

In Africa, as elsewhere, competition is not limited to products. It is shaped by the networks surrounding each player.

Another costly mistake is tracking competitors without mapping their broader ecosystem. This includes partners, institutional allies, key suppliers, access to financing, regulatory influence and lobbying capacity.

In Africa, as elsewhere, competition is not limited to products. It is shaped by the networks surrounding each player. This represents a significant waste at a time when competition is intensifying, and the gap is widening between organizations that use information strategically and those that rely on outdated routines.

EA: In African economies, businesses must often contend with rapidly evolving regulatory, technological and competitive environments. How does competitive intelligence help leaders anticipate these changes?

BD: Competitive intelligence helps organizations identify emerging trends and anticipate events likely to affect a company’s direction. In many African economies, the challenge is not only change itself, but its unpredictability. The real risk is not a lack of information, but being caught off guard by sudden regulatory decisions, supply chain disruptions, currency volatility, shifts in the competitive landscape, or the rapid entry of new players.

Across many African markets, where informality, personal relationships and politics play a central role, anticipation depends as much on understanding human dynamics as on analyzing data. It is therefore a key factor in both survival and competitiveness.

This is how strategic intelligence turns uncertainty into priority watch areas and those areas into strategic options. Anticipation does not rely on data alone. It depends on the ability to detect early signals such as changes in regulatory discourse, shifts in supplier behavior, tensions in logistics chains, and subtle moves by competitors.

Across many African markets, where informality, personal relationships and politics play a central role, anticipation depends as much on understanding human dynamics as on analyzing data. It is therefore a key factor in both survival and competitiveness.

EA: Are there examples of companies demonstrating the impact of a well-developed competitive intelligence system?

BD: Yes, and these situations are more common than they appear, including in our own markets. I have recently observed the direct impact of such systems in two types of scenarios.

In the construction materials sector in Togo, for example, the introduction of new national cement standards significantly changed market conditions. For some players, this proved restrictive. For others, who had already identified the coming regulatory changes, it created an opportunity to prepare early for required adjustments, ensure compliance, and strengthen market credibility. In such cases, competitive intelligence turns regulatory change into a strategic advantage.

In a different context, in telecommunications, I observed how some players, without any public announcement, quietly repositioned themselves by adjusting their offerings, revising pricing strategies, and reconfiguring their commercial presence in anticipation of market shifts and competitive dynamics. These moves, often barely visible at first, reflect an ability to identify turning points before they become obvious.

These examples show that competitive intelligence provides more than information. It creates a clear head start. It helps avoid costly delays, seize opportunities, and sometimes redefine market position while others are still adjusting.

EA: Is the rise of data and artificial intelligence transforming competitive intelligence?

BD: Yes. Clearly. We are in the midst of a major transformation in competitive intelligence, but its nature needs to be clearly understood. What is changing is not the purpose of the discipline, but its tools and speed.

Artificial intelligence and the growth of data have significantly expanded the ability to collect, process and identify signals. Tasks that once required entire teams working through limited information can now be handled across large and diverse data sets from multiple sources in near real time. This creates a clear advantage in speed and scope.

However, this acceleration brings a key risk. The more accessible and abundant information becomes, the greater the chance of a false sense of understanding. Having data is no longer enough. It must be interpreted correctly. Algorithms and models cannot replace the human ability to form hypotheses, interpret signals in context, or account for political, cultural and informal dynamics, which are particularly important in many African markets.

At its core, competitive intelligence is about judgment. It relies on a structured process in which artificial intelligence accelerates certain stages without changing the underlying logic or methodological requirements. Its limitations must also be recognized. Available data is often incomplete, biased or manipulated, and AI models can amplify these biases if they are not properly managed.

EA: For a mid-sized African company looking to build a robust strategic monitoring capability, what should the first steps be?

BD: For a mid-sized African company, building an effective strategic monitoring system does not start with tools. It starts with clear priorities. The first step is to define what you are trying to understand. Key questions include: which markets to track, which competitors to follow, which risks to anticipate, and which opportunities to watch. Without this focus, information quickly becomes abundant but unusable.

The next step is to identify and activate intelligence sources already within the company. In many African markets, insight does not come only from databases or reports. It comes primarily from the field. Sales teams, technicians, partners, suppliers and even customers are valuable sources of information. The challenge is to structure how these signals are captured, shared and used.

The third step is to establish a rhythm. Strategic monitoring is not a one-off exercise. It is a continuous process. This requires regular briefings, targeted alerts and situation updates that provide leadership with a clear and current view of their environment.

At this stage, the company can already see its environment more clearly. But visibility is not enough. The next step is to develop analytical capabilities by formulating hypotheses, cross-referencing signals, building forward-looking scenarios, assessing their impact and informing decisions. This is what turns monitoring into real intelligence.

At this stage, it is useful to distinguish between two complementary levels. The first is operational and focuses on tracking the market, competitors and customer behavior. The second is strategic and focuses on anticipating deeper shifts, modeling possible trajectories and guiding decisions in an uncertain environment.

The key is to proceed incrementally. The goal is not to build a complex system from the outset, but to develop a disciplined, structured and scalable capability. Even with limited resources, a company can build strong competitive intelligence by organizing its sources, structuring its analysis and integrating monitoring into decision-making.

Ultimately, competitive intelligence is not a matter of size or budget. It is a matter of method, rigor and strategic intent.

Interview by Louis-Nino Kansoun