• Oil executives warn conflict may cause prolonged global supply disruptions

• Hormuz chokepoint tightens supply; Brent holds near $99 per barrel

• US downplays risks; analysts cite shortages, rising inflation pressures

Several oil major executives gathered in Houston for the CERAWeek conference on Monday expressed concern about the lasting effects of the conflict on energy markets and the global economy, citing prolonged supply disruptions. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright offered a more measured assessment of the risks at this stage.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains the main chokepoint. The strategic waterway normally carries about 20% of global oil and gas flows. Its disruption, combined with damage to some regional energy infrastructure, has tightened supply on international markets. Against that backdrop, Brent crude was holding around $99 a barrel on Monday, despite a pullback linked to signs of diplomatic easing.

For TotalEnergies chief executive Patrick Pouyanné, the consequences extend beyond the oil market. He said the disruptions are also affecting other supply chains, including those tied to helium, which is essential for semiconductor manufacturing and certain medical applications. This suggests the conflict’s impact extends into the wider industrial economy.

Sultan Al Jaber, chief executive of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), said higher energy prices are slowing global growth and pushing up the cost of living. He pointed to visible effects on households as well as across businesses, from industry to agriculture. Chevron chief executive Mike Wirth said markets have yet to fully price in current tensions, suggesting a gradual adjustment lies ahead.

Washington adopts a more cautious tone

U.S. authorities have taken a more nuanced position in response. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said oil prices have not yet reached levels likely to significantly weigh on demand, despite a notable rise in fuel prices.

He highlighted measures taken by Washington to contain tensions, including drawdowns from strategic reserves and the rerouting of some oil flows to selected markets.

JPMorgan analysts said the disruptions are already causing shortages of crude and refined products in Asia. Separately, BNP Paribas raised its inflation forecasts for 2026, factoring in the impact of higher energy costs.

Efforts by the International Energy Agency to mobilize strategic reserves have not stabilized markets on a lasting basis. The trajectory of the conflict, and any diplomatic progress, will remain key drivers, while the restoration of infrastructure and the ability to keep energy supplies flowing will shape global market trends.

Olivier de Souza