• Jet fuel prices surge across African markets, rising from $0.74 to $1.40 per liter in Kenya after Middle East supply disruptions

• Airlines cut capacity, with Kenya Airways reducing Middle East flights by up to 30% and Turkish Airlines suspending 10 African routes

• East Africa’s tourism rebound—led by Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda—faces renewed risk as air connectivity tightens

Jet fuel prices rose sharply between February and April 2026 following supply disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, tightening global aviation fuel markets and pushing costs across import-dependent African economies. According to African Security Analysis, around 70% of Africa’s jet fuel imports transit through the Strait of Hormuz, exposing the continent to external shocks in global energy supply chains and rapid price transmission into domestic aviation markets.

In Kenya, jet fuel prices increased from $0.74 to $1.40 per liter within months, forcing airlines to adjust operations in response to rising input costs. Kenya Airways has reduced flights to the Middle East by 20% to 30% while increasing aircraft size on remaining routes to maintain passenger volumes. At the same time, Turkish Airlines has suspended or removed 10 African destinations as part of a broader revision of its summer 2026 schedule, while Air France-KLM has raised long-haul fares and Lufthansa has cut several thousand flights globally, reflecting wider cost containment across the aviation industry.

Fuel remains one of the most significant cost components in airline economics, accounting for 30% to 40% of operating expenses in African markets and reaching up to 55% for low-cost carriers. At this level of exposure, airlines typically respond through three mechanisms: higher ticket prices, reduced frequencies, or withdrawal from less profitable routes. In practice, all three adjustments are now occurring simultaneously, tightening air access into and within East Africa.

This shift comes at a sensitive moment for the region’s tourism sector, which had only recently returned to sustained growth after the pandemic shock. In Kenya, international arrivals declined from about 2.05 million in 2019 to 568,000 in 2020 before recovering to an estimated 2.7 million in 2025. Across the region, similar recovery patterns are visible, supported by tourism infrastructure expansion and destination investment strategies.

Tanzania recorded approximately 5.36 million tourists in 2024, while Uganda reached about 1.6 million arrivals in 2025, approaching pre-pandemic levels. These gains have been underpinned by airport expansion projects and tourism capacity upgrades, including developments at Kilimanjaro International Airport and Zanzibar in Tanzania, Bugesera International Airport in Rwanda, and broader transport investments ahead of Uganda’s 2027 Africa Cup of Nations preparations.

However, the current fuel shock is beginning to reshape the recovery trajectory through the aviation channel. As airlines optimize networks under rising cost pressure, capacity is increasingly concentrated on high-yield routes, while lower-margin and less dense African destinations face reductions in frequency or complete suspension. Secondary gateways that depend on stable feeder connections are particularly exposed, as reductions in service directly affect safari circuits, coastal tourism flows and regional travel packages.

The impact is further amplified by timing. According to to the World Bank estimates, mid-year travel seasons typically account for a significant share of annual arrivals in East Africa. Thus, any reduction in seat availability during this window translates directly into lost visitor flows, lower occupancy rates and reduced tourism receipts across hospitality and transport value chains.

Dependence on foreign carriers remains a structural constraint for East Africa’s long-haul connectivity, limiting regional control over pricing, route stability, and capacity allocation. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA) in its Africa air transport outlook reports, intercontinental traffic into African destinations remains heavily dominated by non-African carriers, particularly on Europe–Africa and Middle East–Africa routes, reinforcing external control over key tourism gateways.

In this configuration, pricing and capacity decisions affecting East African tourism are increasingly shaped outside the continent, particularly by global network airlines adjusting routes based on fuel costs and profitability cycles. The World Bank has previously noted that air transport constraints in Africa directly reduce tourism competitiveness by increasing travel costs and lowering demand elasticity, particularly in long-haul leisure markets.

Despite these structural constraints, medium-term buffers are gradually emerging through airport expansion projects, regional integration efforts, and gradual improvements in intra-African connectivity. The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) has consistently identified air connectivity as one of the most critical multipliers for tourism growth in Africa, with improved access linked directly to higher GDP contribution and employment creation in the sector.  Growth in higher-value segments such as safari and eco-tourism is positioned by the governments to help cushion revenue performance even under higher travel costs, but volume growth remains vulnerable to sustained fare inflation and capacity tightening.

By Cynthia Ebot Takang