• Africa posts 21% air cargo growth in February, nearly double global average
• Africa–Asia corridor surges 61.9%, driven by trade shifts and Gulf disruptions
• Capacity limits and rising fuel costs threaten smaller African carriers

In February 2026, Africa recorded the fastest growth in air cargo demand for the fifth consecutive month, with freight volumes rising 21% year over year in ton-kilometers. That is nearly double the global average growth rate of 11.2% reported by the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

The continent’s lead widened from 18.2% growth in January. Capacity among African airlines increased by 17.3%, pushing the cargo load factor up by 1.3 points to 43.8%. This remains below the global average of 46%, leaving room for further volume increases without immediate pressure on rates, according to IATA’s February market analysis. The Middle East ranked second with 16.5% growth, while Latin America and the Caribbean lagged far behind at just 0.7%.

“As demand for air freight continues to grow, Ethiopian Airlines remains committed to investing in modern, sustainable solutions that cement our position in the global cargo market,” said Mesfin Tasew, CEO of Ethiopian Airlines Group, Africa’s largest carrier by network and cargo volume, in a March 24 statement.

February’s figures confirm what is increasingly seen as a structural shift rather than a seasonal spike. The Africa–Asia trade corridor expanded by 61.9% year over year, marking its eighth consecutive month of growth, according to IATA data. This is more than double the second-fastest corridor, Middle East–Asia, which grew by 24%. The acceleration of the Africa–Asia corridor—from about 10% in July 2025 to 41.6% in January—mirrors the early trajectory of the Asia–North America corridor in the early 2000s, now the world’s largest cargo route by volume.

A spike in corridor activity

Three factors have fostered the Africa–Asia surge. In January 2026, Kenya and China signed a preferential trade agreement granting duty-free access to 98.2% of Kenyan products in the Chinese market. Separately, Beijing announced tariff reductions covering most African countries, effective May 2026. These measures favor high-value, time-sensitive goods—such as cut flowers, avocados, and pharmaceuticals—that rely on air freight rather than maritime shipping. DHL reinforced this structural shift in October 2025 by investing more than €300 million in cold chain capacity across sub-Saharan Africa.

A second catalyst occured on February 28, when U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and widespread airspace restrictions across the Gulf. Emirates SkyCargo, Qatar Airways Cargo, and Etihad—which together account for about 13% of global air cargo capacity, according to Freightos—suspended or sharply reduced operations from Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi. The airspace disruption removed between 16% and 18% of global cargo capacity on Asia–Europe and South Asia–Europe routes, according to Xeneta, while freight rates on some lanes jumped by as much as 70%, based on Flexport data.

Ethiopian Airlines saw a surge in bookings as shippers rerouted time-sensitive cargo through Addis Ababa, according to industry analysis by Italy’s ISPI. On March 24, the airline and Dublin-based lessor AerCap—the world’s largest aircraft leasing company—announced lease agreements for two Boeing 777-300ERSF freighters, marketed by AerCap as “The Big Twin.” These aircraft, offering 25% more capacity than smaller long-haul twin-engine freighters, will be the first of their kind to operate on the continent. Deliveries are scheduled for the second quarter of 2028, according to AerCap.

African Hubs Grow Fast but Remain Constrained by Structural Limits

Despite the momentum, African cargo hubs face structural constraints. Addis Ababa’s cargo terminal handles around 1 million tons annually, a fraction of the volumes managed by Dubai or Doha before the crisis. This limits the continent’s ability to absorb large-scale diverted flows. Kenya Airways and Royal Air Maroc are also adding cargo capacity, while Nairobi and Casablanca are positioning themselves as alternative transit hubs. However, infrastructure constraints in sorting and ground handling remain a ceiling on short-term substitution.

At the same time, the crisis that is creating opportunities for major carriers is pushing smaller operators toward financial stress. Fuel accounts for 30% to 40% of operating costs for African airlines, compared with a global average of 20% to 25%, according to the African Airlines Association. With around 70% of Africa’s jet fuel supply transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, fuel prices on the continent have surged to $171 per barrel, according to the Platts index—more than double January levels.

South Africa holds only three to four weeks of national fuel reserves, according to the Board of Airline Representatives of South Africa. Zambia had about ten days of supply as of mid-March. Regional carriers such as ASKY, fastjet, Air Côte d’Ivoire, and Precision Air—lacking the hedging capacity and supply chain leverage of Ethiopian Airlines or Kenya Airways—have suspended routes or reduced frequencies.

The African Air Transport Convention, scheduled for June 2026 in Lomé, Togo, is expected to address cargo liberalization under the Single African Air Transport Market, an African Union initiative covering 38 signatory states. February’s data provide a strong case for unlocking fifth and seventh freedom rights for cargo—a reform proponents say could significantly boost the efficiency of emerging hubs. The key question for Africa’s aviation sector in the coming months is whether the Gulf crisis will accelerate political momentum or shift focus toward energy security concerns.

Idriss Linge