• Production forecast at 9 million tons, more than double last season
• Strong early rains helped expand cultivated land to 3.9 million hectares
• Lower output than record levels, but imports—especially wheat—could decline

Morocco expects to harvest around 9 million tons of cereals in the ongoing 2025/2026 season, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. The estimate was announced by Agriculture Minister Ahmed El Bouari during the 18th International Agriculture Show (SIAM), held from April 20 to 28 in Meknès.

The projected output is more than double the 4.4 million tons recorded in the previous season. The rebound reflects favorable rainfall early in the campaign, which allowed a significant expansion of cultivated areas.

Official data show that cereal crops now cover 3.9 million hectares, compared with less than 3 million hectares last season. The main crops grown in Morocco are wheat, barley, and corn.

Despite the recovery, expected production remains below historical highs. In the 2014/2015 season, Morocco recorded a peak harvest of around 11.5 million tons, highlighting the sector’s potential under optimal weather conditions.

Still, a stronger harvest could reduce the country’s reliance on imports in the next marketing season. According to the FAO, Morocco imported an average of 8.8 million tons of cereals annually between the 2021/2022 and 2023/2024 marketing seasons. About 63% of those imports were soft and durum wheat, 25% corn, 10% barley, and the remainder rice.

Soft wheat imports expected to drop

In this context, Morocco is expected to import around 3 million tons of soft wheat for the 2026/2027 marketing season, according to forecasts by the Moroccan Federation of Millers. If confirmed, this would mark a decline of at least 40% compared with recent averages.

“In recent years, we have imported between 50 and 55 million quintals of soft wheat. With the current harvest outlook, imports should fall to 30 million quintals,” said Abdelkader Alaoui, president of the federation, in comments reported on April 19 by Finance News Hebdo.

In Morocco, soft wheat is mainly used to produce flour for bread, bakery products, and much of the agro-industry. The country has historically sourced its supplies from the European Union and North America.

Stéphanas Assocle