• Ghana expects cocoa output to exceed 650,000 tons in the 2025/26 season, up from 600,000 tons forecast for 2024/25.
• The government has raised the farmgate price by over 62% to $5,040 per ton, higher than Côte d’Ivoire’s $4,949.
• Favorable weather, progress against cocoa diseases, and a crackdown on illegal mining are driving the optimistic outlook.

Ghana expects cocoa production to exceed 650,000 tons during the 2025/26 season, Agriculture Minister Eric Opoku said on October 21 at the Norman Borlaug International Dialogue in Des Moines, Iowa.

The world’s second-largest cocoa producer launched its 2025/26 season in August with the goal of improving the performance of a sector that contributes about 10% to its GDP.

Opoku attributed the forecast to favorable weather conditions and encouraging progress in combating the cocoa swollen shoot virus and illegal mining, according to comments reported by Reuters.

He said the government’s improved pricing policy will stimulate output and help reduce smuggling to neighboring countries.

Ghana increased the farmgate price paid to cocoa farmers by more than 62% for the current season, from $3,100 to $5,040 per ton, surpassing Côte d’Ivoire’s $4,949 per ton.

“I don’t think smuggling is a problem today because everything depends on pricing, and our prices are now competitive,” Opoku said.

Some industry observers urged caution, noting that Ghanaian authorities have made optimistic forecasts before.

If the outlook materializes, Ghana would maintain its position as the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, ahead of Ecuador, which expects output of around 650,000 tons, according to the Ecuadorian Association of Cocoa Exporters (Anecacao).

The projection underscores a recovery in Ghana’s cocoa sector after output fell to 425,000 tons in 2023/24, the lowest in two decades, before rebounding to 600,000 tons, according to the Ghana Cocoa Board (Cocobod).

This article was initially published in French by Espoir Olodo

Adapted in English by Ange Jason Quenum