• Distributed solar made up at least 44% of Africa’s installations in 2025

• Falling costs, weak grids drive shift toward decentralized electrification

• IEA says 55% of new connections by 2035 will be decentralized

Decentralized electrification solutions are playing a growing role in efforts to expand electricity access in Africa. Two recent reports published by the Global Solar Council (GSC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) highlight this trend, showing that these solutions address practical constraints linked to weak grid infrastructure and the high cost of alternatives, particularly diesel generation.

According to the GSC’s Africa Market Outlook for Solar PV: 2026–2029, published in early February, distributed solar accounted for at least 44% of solar installations in Africa in 2025. The organization says this share is likely underestimated due to gaps in data collection.

Long dominated by large, grid-connected projects, the market is now shifting toward systems deployed at the household level, for businesses, or through mini-grids. The GSC attributes this shift to falling solar panel prices, improved battery performance, and rising electricity demand amid unstable grids and higher tariffs.

These findings are consistent with the IEA’s analysis of electricity access in Africa. The agency notes that most households without electricity live more than 30 kilometers from the grid, sometimes more than 100 kilometers away, or in sparsely populated rural areas, where grid extension is complex and costly. Under its ACCESS scenario, the IEA estimates that about 55% of new electricity connections by 2035 will rely on decentralized solutions.

The agency also points out that decentralized systems are increasingly integrated into national electrification plans in countries such as Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Ghana, Madagascar and Mauritania. While financing remains a challenge, costs have declined sharply. Mini-grid costs have fallen by around 35% per kilowatt-peak over the past five years, driven by lower prices for solar panels and batteries, reinforcing the GSC’s conclusions.

Taken together, the two reports indicate that decentralized solutions, particularly solar, are emerging as a practical and sustainable response in Africa, where around 600 million people still lack access to electricity.

Abdoullah Diop