• The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a record oil surplus of 4 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026.
• Global oil supply is expected to reach over 106 million bpd in 2026, up 4.5% from 2024.
• Brent prices have dropped about 15% since Q2 2025, currently trading between $62 and $67 per barrel.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects a significant oil surplus in 2026 as OPEC and its allies continue to increase production. In early October 2025, the OPEC+ group raised output by 137,000 barrels per day to support recovering global demand.

In its Oil Market Report (OMR) published on October 14, the IEA forecasted an excess supply of roughly 4 million barrels per day, marking the largest surplus since the agency’s creation.

The IEA attributes this projection to OPEC+’s gradual rollback of voluntary cuts introduced to stabilize prices. Major producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, are progressively restoring volumes that were withdrawn since 2023.

Non-OPEC+ producers — notably the United States, Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and Argentina — are also expanding production through new projects.

The agency estimates global supply will rise from 101.6 million bpd in 2024 to over 106 million bpd in 2026, an increase of about 4.5%. Meanwhile, global demand will grow by an average of 700,000 bpd per year in 2025 and 2026, slower than in the previous decade.

The IEA cites weaker economic activity, higher energy efficiency, and the expansion of electric vehicles in major consuming countries as key reasons for the demand slowdown. These trends, the agency notes, are tempering growth in fossil fuel use without causing a sharp drop in overall consumption.

The IEA observes a steady buildup of onshore and offshore inventories and stresses that market balance will depend on future OPEC+ production decisions. “The choices made in the coming months will determine the trajectory of supply and demand in 2026,” the report said.

Since January 2025, Brent crude has traded between $60 and $78 per barrel, according to Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) benchmarks. After peaking in the second quarter, prices have fallen around 15%, settling in early October between $62 and $67 per barrel.

The decline reflects rising inventories and the gradual return of OPEC+ production volumes.

This trend poses fiscal challenges for oil-dependent African producers such as Nigeria and Angola, whose 2025 budgets are based on price assumptions of $75 and $70 per barrel, respectively. The widening gap between forecasted and actual prices could strain their public finances.

This article was initially published in French by Abdel-Latif Boureima

Adapted in English by Ange Jason Quenum