• Top 20 fossil fuel producers plan to more than double output allowed under Paris deal.

• By 2030, coal, oil, and gas output could surpass 1.5°C pathway by 500%, 31%, and 92%.

• Report raises concerns ahead of COP30 in Brazil over weak net-zero commitments.

By 2030, the world’s biggest fossil fuel producers plan to extract more than twice the coal, oil, and gas that would be compatible with the Paris Agreement targets of keeping global warming below 2°C, and ideally 1.5°C, above pre-industrial levels.

This is the conclusion of the “Production Gap Report,” released on September 22 by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Climate Analytics, and the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD).

The study, launched in 2019, tracks the production plans of 20 countries that together account for 80% of global fossil fuel supply. They include Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Germany, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Mexico, Nigeria, Norway, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Seventeen of these nations plan to expand output of at least one fossil fuel by 2030. Eleven now project higher production in 2030 than they did in 2023.

On this path, fossil fuel output in 2030 would exceed the 1.5°C limit by 500% for coal, 31% for oil, and 92% for gas.

The report also highlights uneven progress on net-zero pledges. Australia, India, and Germany have written targets into law, while China and Indonesia include them in their nationally determined contributions (NDCs). But in Qatar, the United States, and Norway, no net-zero goal is in place.

“The increase in fossil fuel expansion plans over the last two years is alarming. While many governments see renewables as key to their energy security, others are betting against the clean energy transition. To avert the worst climate impacts with minimal economic disruption, governments need to commit to no new fossil fuels and back the clean industries of the future,” said Olivier Bois von Kursk, co-author of the report and policy advisor at IISD.

The findings could dampen hopes among civil society and environmental groups ahead of COP30, to be held in Belém, Brazil, from November 10 to 21, 2025. Others believe the report could instead raise pressure on the 196 countries expected to attend.

Brazil has recently signaled its determination to rally the international community to secure stronger commitments and ensure full compliance with the Paris Agreement.