• BP raises 2050 oil demand forecast to 83 million bpd
• Energy security, protectionism drive extended fossil fuel reliance
• Renewables grow fast but won't displace oil before the late 2040s

British oil major BP now anticipates higher global demand for oil and gas through 2050, projecting that consumption will remain above previous estimates. According to the company’s annual report, released on September 25, oil demand could reach approximately 83 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2050, up from its prior forecast of 77 million bpd.

The projection for natural gas has also been revised upward, from 4,729 billion cubic meters to 4,806 billion cubic meters by the same date. BP states that this revision confirms the current trajectory is fundamentally incompatible with achieving global carbon neutrality goals.

The company attributes these forecast adjustments to several key geopolitical and economic factors:

First, conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have intensified government concerns over energy security. This heightened focus is pushing states to maintain a substantial role for hydrocarbons in their national energy mixes.

Second, the rise of trade protectionism, particularly in the United States, marked by an increase in tariffs, is motivating many countries, especially producers, to secure their own domestic resources rather than relying on imports.

According to the multinational firm, these dynamics are prolonging the strategic importance of oil and gas, even as investment in renewable energy accelerates globally. In Africa, for instance, installed renewable capacity increased 6.7% year-on-year to 66,898 MW in 2024, according to IRENA.

Despite the revised oil and gas projections, the BP report predicts that renewables will still cover more than 80% of the growth in global electricity demand by 2035. Within this context, solar and wind power are slated to play a central role in expanding production capacity. However, their rapid progress will not be enough, in the short or medium term, to unseat oil as the primary source of global energy.

In BP's scenario, this major energy shift is not expected until the late 2040s. The company warns that without additional policy measures, the world risks exhausting the global carbon budget compatible with limiting warming to 2 °C as early as the beginning of the 2040s.

Abdel-Latif Boureima