• Global aircraft supply shortages may cost aviation $11B in 2025; African airlines hit hardest
• Delays force use of older planes, raising fuel and maintenance costs across African carriers
• IATA urges local MRO capacity, supply chain transparency, and aftermarket access to ease crisis

The global aviation industry is grappling with a production shortfall that could cost the sector more than $11 billion in 2025, according to a study by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) and consulting firm Oliver Wyman. The disruption is hitting African carriers especially hard, as they face thin profit margins and a structural reliance on foreign manufacturers and suppliers.

The study, titled Reviving the Commercial Aircraft Supply Chain, highlights persistent delays in the production of new aircraft and spare parts. These bottlenecks are forcing airlines to keep older, less fuel-efficient planes in service, driving up maintenance and fuel costs. For African carriers, the impact is immediate, affecting daily operations and expansion plans.

These bottlenecks are forcing airlines to keep older, less fuel-efficient planes in service, driving up maintenance and fuel costs.

IATA attributes most of the expected losses to four factors: higher fuel costs ($4.2 billion), rising maintenance expenses ($3.1 billion), increased engine and aircraft lease rates ($2.6 billion), and storage costs for spare parts ($1.4 billion).

African airlines scale back ambitions

Air Algérie, which announced plans to acquire 16 new aircraft, has yet to receive its first deliveries, initially scheduled for April 2025. The airline now expects them in November, a delay that is already disrupting its international route expansion. Ethiopian Airlines, Africa’s leading carrier, is also feeling the strain. In August 2024, CEO Mesfin Tasew told Bloomberg the airline had been forced to lease extra planes to offset delivery delays from Boeing.

The difficulties faced by major airlines underscore the scale of the problem, which could prove even more damaging for smaller regional operators such as RwandAir, Air Côte d’Ivoire, and Air Sénégal, many of which rely heavily on leasing to expand their fleets.

Kenya Airways partly blamed its first-half 2025 losses on grounded aircraft. Three of its nine Boeing 787-8s were out of service for several months due to a global shortage of spare parts and limited overhaul capacity for General Electric GEnx-1B70 engines. The difficulties faced by major airlines underscore the scale of the problem, which could prove even more damaging for smaller regional operators such as RwandAir, Air Côte d’Ivoire, and Air Sénégal, many of which rely heavily on leasing to expand their fleets.

A structural dependence weighing on African aviation

The situation highlights a long-standing issue: Africa’s dependence on external production and maintenance networks. Few countries on the continent have internationally certified manufacturing or MRO (maintenance, repair, and overhaul) facilities. Most carriers must send their aircraft to Europe, the Middle East, or Asia for servicing, adding logistical costs and extending downtime, particularly problematic during a global shortage of parts and industrial capacity.

African airlines earned an average of just $1 per passenger in 2024, compared with $27 in the Middle East and a global average of $7.20, according to IATA.

According to the African Airlines Association (AFRAA), the continent’s commercial fleet totaled 695 aircraft in 2023, none built locally and most serviced abroad. AFRAA projects 1,650 new aircraft deliveries over the next 20 years. Compounding the challenge are higher operating costs: jet fuel in Africa is 17 percent more expensive than elsewhere, airport taxes and fees run 12 to 15 percent higher, and insurance costs exceed the global average by 6 to 10 percent.

As a result, African airlines earned an average of just $1 per passenger in 2024, compared with $27 in the Middle East and a global average of $7.20, according to IATA.

Building resilience through local capacity-building

IATA is urging the industry to expand the secondary market, increase supply chain transparency, and develop local repair and manufacturing capacity. These measures are particularly critical for Africa, where several initiatives are already taking shape. Ethiopian Airlines continues to invest in its Addis Ababa MRO center, while Morocco and South Africa are expanding aerospace industrial zones focused on subcontracting and maintenance.

“Greater transparency on the state of the supply chain would give airlines the data they need to plan around blockages while helping OEMs to ease underlying bottlenecks.”

Such projects could help build a nascent regional value chain through joint stockpiles of spare parts and specialized technician training, two essential steps toward reducing external dependency.

With African air traffic expected to grow by an average of 3.7 percent annually through 2043, strengthening the industry’s industrial and logistical resilience is becoming increasingly urgent. As IATA Director General Willie Walsh put it, “There is no simple solution to resolving this problem, but there are several actions that could provide some relief. To start, opening the aftermarket would help by giving airlines greater choice and access to parts and services. In parallel, greater transparency on the state of the supply chain would give airlines the data they need to plan around blockages while helping OEMs to ease underlying bottlenecks.”

Henoc Dossa