• IMF cuts Mali’s 2025 growth forecast to 4.1% due to fuel supply disruption
• Gold output decline, power cuts, and reduced aid also weigh on activity
• Growth expected to rebound to 5.5% in 2026 as conditions improve

Following a virtual mission conducted as part of the first review of Mali’s reference program, an International Monetary Fund (IMF) team revised the country’s economic growth outlook to 4.1%, down from an initial projection of 5%.

According to the statement published on November 24, the downgrade reflects recent disruptions affecting the country’s fuel supply. Lower gold production, recurring power outages, and reduced development and humanitarian aid have further strained the economy.

In September, fighters from the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (GSIM), affiliated with Al-Qaeda, escalated attacks on fuel tankers transporting fuel to Mali. The group blocked fuel imports from Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire, key transit routes for most imported goods.

This situation slowed economic, school, and humanitarian activities, plunging communities into an energy and food crisis.

The IMF notes, however, that next year should be more favorable. Growth is expected to accelerate to 5.5% in 2026, supported by a rebound in gold production and gradual improvement in security conditions. Inflation is projected to ease to 2.5% in 2026 from the 3% expected in 2025.

Progress observed in reform implementation

Mali recorded progress under the first review of the reference program despite the challenging context. According to the IMF, “the authorities met almost all quantitative and indicative targets set for end-September and complied with all structural criteria.”

The government also ensures transparent use of IMF disbursements under the rapid credit facility approved in April. A first quarterly report on the use of these resources, including detailed procurement data on selection procedures and the identity of beneficial owners, has been published.

Lydie Mobio