Lesotho claims that US lawmakers promised to extend AGOA by one year, but no formal action has yet been taken.

Thirty-two countries are fully eligible, yet only 18 benefit significantly; Lesotho’s exports and jobs remain heavily dependent.

Without renewal by September 30, 2025, tariffs will be reinstated, impacting African exports, US retailers, and critical mineral supply chains.

Earlier this week, Lesotho’s Minister of Trade, Industry and Business Development, Mokhethi Shelile, announced that United States lawmakers had given an informal assurance that the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) would be extended by one year. Speaking in Maseru after a week-long diplomatic mission to Washington, Shelile said members of the House Ways and Means Committee and the Senate Finance Committee had “promised the programme will be prolonged by November or December at the latest.” The remarks were reported by Reuters and in a written report by CNBC Africa.

AGOA, first enacted in 2000, provides duty-free access to the U.S. market for more than 1,800 products from eligible sub-Saharan African countries. The legislation is set to expire at midnight on September 30, 2025. Without an extension or interim measure, tariffs will automatically be applied to African exports, increasing costs for producers in Africa and importers in the United States.

Lesotho is among the countries most exposed to the programme’s fate. According to Sheila, 45 percent of the country’s total merchandise exports are shipped to the United States, and garments account for 80 percent of those shipments. This means nearly one-third of the country’s overall export earnings are directly tied to AGOA. The textile and apparel industry employs between 30,000 and 40,000 workers, primarily women, and contributes approximately one-third of the national GDP. The International Monetary Fund has previously warned that a sudden loss of preferential access could reduce Lesotho’s exports by up to 70 percent and force widespread factory closures. Several manufacturers have already slowed overtime shifts and paused new orders while awaiting clarity.

The impact would extend beyond Lesotho. Kenya, Ethiopia, Madagascar, Ghana, and South Africa have developed export industries around AGOA access, particularly in textiles, apparel, and horticulture. A short-term extension would provide temporary relief for these sectors while negotiations continue on a longer-term solution. However, despite the informal pledge, no bill, executive order, or budget resolution has yet been introduced in Washington. Congressional staff have confirmed that draft text for a one-year extension is circulating, but no floor vote has been scheduled.

Efforts to secure a comprehensive renewal remain stalled. The AGOA Renewal and Improvement Act of 2024 (S. 4110), introduced in April 2024 by Senators Chris Coons and James Risch, proposes extending the program to 2041 while modernizing eligibility reviews, strengthening labor and environmental safeguards, and aligning rules of origin with the African Continental Free Trade Area. A companion bill, H.R. 7986, was introduced in the House of Representatives. Both remain inactive, with S. 4110 still pending before the Senate Finance Committee. The 118th Congress is scheduled to adjourn in January 2026, and with a lame-duck session following the November elections, domestic issues such as tariffs and border security dominate the legislative agenda.

Business groups and African diplomats have stepped up lobbying efforts in recent weeks. On September 11, 2025, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce sent a letter to congressional leaders urging rapid reauthorization, arguing that AGOA supports thousands of American businesses and contributes to supply-chain diversification away from China. Diplomats from South Africa, Kenya, Ghana, and the African Union Mission held back-to-back meetings on Capitol Hill, warning of the economic disruption that would follow an expiration.

As of September 2025, 32 sub-Saharan African countries are fully eligible under AGOA. However, only 18 are actively benefiting in significant volumes, reflecting both the concentration of exports in a few sectors and uneven capacity across the continent. Eight countries, including South Africa and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, face partial exclusions linked to governance and trade disputes, while roughly half of the sub-Saharan states are entirely excluded due to political, human rights, or security concerns. This fragmented landscape has limited the scope of unified lobbying by African governments.

Trade flows under AGOA have expanded since its inception. U.S. International Trade Commission data show that commerce covered by the programme grew from $24 billion in 2002 to $105 billion in 2024. If the scheme lapses, products such as Lesotho-made denim and knitwear would face tariffs of around 15 percent, the rate set by the Trump administration in August 2025 following an earlier threat of 50 percent. U.S. retailers have warned that replacing African sourcing would lead to higher consumer prices and disrupt inventories for the back-to-school and holiday seasons. Major apparel brands, including Levi’s and Gap, rely on AGOA-linked suppliers for part of their U.S. distribution.

The debate also carries a geopolitical dimension. Analysts from the Australian Institute of International Affairs and the CSIS Africa Programme note that non-renewal would accelerate China’s dominance in African supply chains, particularly in critical minerals such as cobalt, manganese, and rare earth elements. These resources have been designated as vital for U.S. electric vehicle and renewable energy production, making AGOA part of a broader strategic contest over global supply chains.

With four days remaining before the 30 September deadline, uncertainty prevails. Lesotho’s factories have signalled possible layoffs from 1 October if no resolution is reached, while U.S. customs brokers have been instructed to prepare to apply duties unless retroactive relief is enacted. Although an informal promise of a one-year extension has been made, no legislative or executive action has been taken yet. Until such measures are formally adopted, the future of AGOA — and the economic stability of the countries that depend on it — remains unresolved.

Cythia Ebot Takang, Edited By Idriss Linge